48 Electoral Votes Away: National Popular Vote Campaign Closing in on Threshold
The push to effectively elect a president through a national popular vote is within striking distance, just 48 votes shy, prompting Electoral College advocates to step up their appeal to state Democrat lawmakers across the country.
In April, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed a bill to make her state the latest to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, bringing the total to 18 Democrat-leaning states and the District of Columbia, which have 222 electoral votes. The agreement takes effect when enough states have joined to reach the 270 votes to elect a president.
Lobbyists for both sides have cranked up their efforts.
“I’ve asked lawmakers: Would you want your state’s electoral votes going to a candidate the people of your state didn’t vote for?” Jasper Hendricks, executive director of Democrats for the Electoral College, told the Daily Signal. “If this had been in effect, Virginia would have gone to Donald Trump in 2024, when Kamala Harris won it. That would not be fair, and it would have led to lawsuits.”
Hendricks said he voted for Hillary Clinton three times in one year—legally.
“Once in the primary, once in the general, and once in the Electoral College,” said the 2016 Virginia elector.
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“I didn’t like the way that went down that year,” Hendricks said. “She won the popular vote. But it’s not going to do any good to fuss and argue.”
Hendricks, also the CEO of the Black Legislative Leaders Network, understands that the 2016 Donald Trump election and 2000 George W. Bush election—both in which the winner lost the popular vote—soured Democrats on the concept.
National Popular Vote, the nonprofit lobbying states to adopt the measure, points to a viable pathway. The compact passed the legislature in Nevada in 2019, but then-Democrat Gov. Steve Sisolak vetoed it, arguing Nevada would lose its status as a battleground state. The measure passed one legislative chamber in the red states of Arkansas and Oklahoma, as well as the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada.
Advocates are focused on passage in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which would add 61 votes, well over the threshold. Proponents are aiming at Republican legislators, with numerous Republicans speaking in favor of the compact.
“Every election brings us one step closer to giving 63% of American voters what they want: A National Popular Vote for President,” Patrick Rosenstiel, senior consultant for National Popular Vote, who held positions with the Republican National Committee, on the 2016 Ted Cruz presidential campaign, and on the 1988 Jack Kemp presidential campaign, told the Daily Signal.
“The midterms will remind voters of every political persuasion of how the principle of one-person, one-vote is foundational to our democracy and how it should govern presidential elections,” he continued. “The National Popular Vote is how we can make every American voter equally relevant in every presidential election.”
The popular vote movement has been largely funded by left-leaning and Democrat donors.
Democrats in state legislatures are the chief focus, said Trent England, executive director of Save Our States, which supports keeping the Electoral College.
“Almost 100% of Republican legislators are with us on this issue. We just want to help Democrats understand how important this is, especially for swing states,” England told the Daily Signal.
“We’ve talked to Democratic lawmakers in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada,” England added. “There are plenty of folks on the Democratic side who understand. Pennsylvania is another state we are focused on. Both sides have heavily targeted that state.”
Democrats for the Electoral College contends the Electoral College helped turn the Democratic Party into a national civil rights coalition rather than a collection of regional interests. Hendricks noted that as a Massachusetts senator, John F. Kennedy defended the Electoral College against the segregationist wing of his party that wanted to end it in 1956.
The interstate compact is largely an end run around a constitutional amendment to replace the Electoral College. This would only allow states to voluntarily give their votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of what candidate carried the state.
“Our approach is that the National Popular Vote Compact is not the way to fix this,” Hendricks said. “It will not replace the Electoral College, and states have latitude with awarding electors. It doesn’t have to be a winner-take-all system. If you want to get rid of it, you need to begin the hard work of changing the Constitution.”
The states of Maine and Nebraska award presidential electors based on congressional districts.
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