The fight for control of Congress will come down to Election Day voter turnout, a new Cygnal poll has found.
“Democrats have banked their early votes,” Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of Cygnal, said, “so this election now comes down to who shows up on Election Day.”
According to the company’s Oct. 23 and 24 National Voter Trends survey of 1,500 likely voters, Democrats hold the advantage in every voting method—mail-in, absentee, and early voting—except in-person, Election Day turnout.
The Left currently holds 17% of the American electorate, as opposed to Republicans’ 10%, but the poll found that almost half, 48%, of Republicans are waiting to vote on Nov. 3.
The key demographic for the Right, Buchanan said, will be “policy-first” Republicans, 80% of whom have yet to vote.
“Republican candidates need them [policy-first Republicans] to show up by speaking about policies and ideas, not personalities,” Buchanen said. “If you get in front of them on fixes to cost of living as opposed to loyalty tests, there’s still a real path to give them a reason to show up and close the margin.”
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Since February, voters have lost trust in Republican policies on managing the economy, crime, foreign policy, and wasteful spending. The Right took the largest hit in voter confidence on the cost of living—from 1% favor of Republican policies to 12% favor of Democrats.
Asked to pick two issues to prioritize in the event of a Democrat congressional flip, voters across the board—including Republicans, swing voters, and moderates—want Congress to lower energy prices and end the war in Iran.
Among Democrat voters, the highest priority is to end the Iran war. The second and third priorities are to begin congressional investigations and to impeach President Donald Trump.
“This final data shows the Democratic base is counting on an agenda of investigations and impeachment should they win in November,” Buchanan said. “That is in direct opposition of what swing voters say they want out of a potentially Democrat-led Congress.”
Only 10% of swing voters think investigations and impeachment should be a priority, compared to 35% and 32% of Democrats.
One of voters’ largest concerns is election integrity. Choosing between three options, 33% of voters fear being blocked or intimidated at voting sites, 28% fear ineligible votes being counted, and 23% fear ballot tampering after submission.
Regardless of midterm results, most Republicans, 54%, still believe Trump should have a major influence on the GOP. Even after his term ends, at least 65% of Republicans want to keep Trump-era policies in some way.
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