The Most Surprising Number in New Midterm Poll

Even amid voter frustration over the economy and the Iran war, Republicans remain more popular than Democrats heading into Election Day.

Republicans have a net favorability rating 8 points higher than Democrats, according to the latest NBC News poll. The GOP is viewed favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 49%, while Democrats fare even worse at 29% favorable and 50% unfavorable.

With pollsters predicting trouble for President Donald Trump’s party, the poll raises an obvious question: Why aren’t Democrats benefiting more from voter dissatisfaction?

Jeff Horwitt, a Democrat pollster whose firm Hart Research Associates helped conduct the NBC News survey, acknowledged that the Democratic Party “remains in a terrible position as a brand nationally.”

Here’s why:

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• The far-left Democratic Socialists of America, which has dominated news coverage this election cycle, has a favorability rating of 22%.
• DSA policies are unpopular. Half of voters would be less likely to support a candidate who embraces a socialist agenda.
• Republicans maintain a decisive advantage over Democrats on three key issues: border security, immigration, and crime.

On the campaign trail, Democrat candidates in states from Michigan, Texas, and Minnesota are increasingly being forced to defend or distance themselves from their past far-left positions as Republicans highlight their records.

There’s also another factor that could be at play, not just with the NBC News survey but in polling more broadly.

Potential Republican Momentum

After weeks of consistently bad numbers for the GOP, Daily Signal senior contributor Victor Davis Hanson expects Republicans to begin seeing better news in the weeks ahead.

>>> VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: A MIDTERM ELECTIONS UPDATE

“Most polls tend to exaggerate the strength of a Democratic candidate for most of the race,” Hanson explained in his latest Daily Signal video. “As the race gets down to the Election Day deadline, many of the pollsters will be more realistic so that they can save their reputations after the balloting is conducted.”

Hanson said Republicans believe “very slowly there’s a turnaround, and the momentum may be going their way.”

Affordability Problem Isn’t Going Away

That doesn’t mean Republicans should rest on their laurels.

The economy remains the No. 1 concern among voters, and they are split on which party would do a better job: 38% favor Republicans vs. 39% for Democrats.

After four disastrous years of Joe Biden’s presidency, with inflation hitting levels not seen in 40 years, Republicans campaigned on the cost of living in 2024. Voters put Trump back in charge, and the GOP swiftly passed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” to boost economic growth.

>>> ONLY HALF OF TRADITIONAL REPUBLICANS ARE EXCITED TO VOTE. THAT’S THE BALLGAME.

While that should be working to the GOP’s advantage, instead they’re facing voter frustration over stubbornly high gas and diesel prices, which have made groceries and other basic necessities more expensive.

It’s one reason conservatives urged Congress to pass a third reconciliation bill—to show voters they were serious about addressing affordability.

“Besides gas prices, there’s a lot of good news,” Hanson said, pointing to low poverty, strong income growth, and a record stock market as issues Republicans should emphasize during the campaign’s final weeks.

Can Republicans Defy Midterm History?

Still, history is not on Trump’s side. Hanson frequently reminds us that the incumbent president’s party has a track record of losing U.S. House seats in 39 of the last 41 midterm elections. The two exceptions came in 1998 during the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and in 2002 as President George W. Bush conducted the war on terror.

This time, it’s a different war that’s causing anxiety among Republicans. More than 60% of voters think the Iran war wasn’t worth fighting, and only 24% of voters say they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs the war.

Democrats even hold a 4-point edge over the GOP on which party would do a better job of managing the Iran war. That’s close to the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, but not exactly an endorsement.

With less than six weeks remaining before Election Day, both parties face a familiar challenge: motivating their own base while persuading the few remaining undecided voters that they offer a better path forward.

The NBC News poll was conducted by GOP-aligned Public Opinion Strategies and Democrat-aligned firm Hart Research Associates.