Can Trump Really Give Every Adult American $5K Check?

President Donald Trump shocked the nation Wednesday night when he promised to send a $5,000 check to every American adult if Republicans win the midterms, but conservative economists say the proposal should not come to fruition.

“Because we’ve done so well, and because our country is making so much money, only I can make this promise to you, and here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate … I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” Trump said during his Wednesday speech to the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention in Dallas.

But economists tell the Daily Signal there are not enough funds for the roughly $1.2 trillion proposal.

“It’s a bad idea, and I think it would have negative economic consequences,” said a former Trump economic adviser.

“We were raising about $150 billion a year from tariffs,” he said, “and the cost of doing that payment would be about a trillion. You couldn’t pay for it with tariff revenue unless you massively raise the tariff rates.”

Moreover, Trump had to return more than $100 billion in tariff revenue after the Supreme Court ruled tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal.

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At a time when inflation is already high, a proposal to raise inflation even more is not a good idea, he said. The proposal is similar to COVID-19 stimulus checks, which also produced inflation.

“It increases demand for goods and services, but doesn’t increase the supply. So, what does that mean? Inflation,” the adviser explained. “It raises prices because you have people wanting to buy more services without more services available. The demand outstrips the supply, so the prices go up.”

A better idea would be for Trump to propose an economic growth dividend if Republicans win elections, he said.

“What I would like for him to be saying is, ‘Look, we’re going to cut taxes more,’” he said. “‘We’re going to do other pro-growth deregulations, and that will produce an economic growth dividend that will mean a $5,000 increase in median income for families.’”

Another conservative economist said the president doesn’t have the constitutional authority to implement such a proposal. Congress would have to pass a law for such dividends to be distributed, as the president doesn’t have a slush fund to draw from.

The Treasury Department can try to collect tax revenue, borrow money, and send out checks, but the courts would likely stop that from happening, according to the economist.

“We’re drowning in debt right now, and where are we going to come up with this money?” the economist asked. “I don’t know how anybody could possibly take this seriously.”

Republicans are already on the record opposing such an idea because they criticized former Democrat presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s idea to give American adults $1,000 a month as a form of universal basic income, the economist said. The proposal is “straight out of the Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, AOC playbook,” according to the economist.

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a fiscal hawk, said he would be happy to consider “allowing taxpayers to keep more of their hard-earned money within the framework of tax simplification, rationalization, and deficit reduction.” He is supportive of a reconciliation 3.0 package to fund national defense, farmers, and election integrity.

“Estimates of fraud within federal spending range between $250 billion to $1 trillion per year—eliminating this waste would provide more than adequate pay-fors, NOT by reducing benefits,” he said.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris, R-Md., also said he would like to see the president’s proposal tied to measures to cut waste, fraud, and abuse of taxpayer dollars.

“I support putting more money back in the pockets of working-class American taxpayers, just like the Working Families Tax Cuts and Jobs Act did last year, including no tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security,” he said in a statement shared with the Daily Signal. “This new effort by the president should be coupled with ongoing Republican efforts to fight huge amounts of waste, fraud, and abuse in federal programs—and returning a large part of those savings back to the taxpayers as a ‘waste, fraud, and abuse dividend.’”

However, Freedom Caucus member Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, has concerns about the president’s promise.

” … But re: $5000 dividend for every adult citizen—it’s (back envelope) an FY27 cost of $1.2T,” he said. “Dear certain friends … deficits aside – you could almost ZERO out taxes for married parents of dependents up to $200,000 over 10 years!”

In a separate X post, Roy emphasized that “the human soul matters.”

“Government ‘leaders’ creating dependence on government for a new constituency in the name of ‘fairness’ is not good for the soul,” he said. “Freedom, independence, and non-dependence is good for the soul.”

When asked about hesitations about Trump’s dividend plan, White House spokesman Davis Ingle denounced critics as “doomer and naysayers.”

“President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong, drawing a clear contrast with the Democrats’ record of historic inflation, unfettered illegal immigration, skyrocketing crime, and weakness on the world stage,” Ingle said in a statement to the Daily Signal. “With the continued support of the American people, President Trump will keep delivering real results.”