FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—A new poll shows stunningly low job approval numbers for President Donald Trump in the critical swing state of Michigan but suggests Republican Mike Rogers has a shot at winning the state’s Senate race in November.
“This poll reflects a lot of national angst directed at Republicans, to be sure,” Steve Cortes, founder and president of the League of American Workers, the organization for which the poll was conducted, told the Daily Signal.
“But all politics is local, and the poll also shows that Mike Rogers is popular in Michigan and has a terrific chance to flip a U.S. Senate seat from Democrat to Republican,” he added.
The poll shows Trump receiving 36% job approval from the state that has elected him twice. Fifty-eight percent of respondents disapprove of Trump’s performance.
The online poll of 1,456 voters, carried out by TechnoMetrica from May 20 to 23, has a 2.7% margin of error.
The pollster combines approval and disapproval numbers, often arriving at negative numbers for Trump. For example, the poll found Trump is struggling with key voting blocs that backed him in 2024, with -10% job approval among men, -13% among whites, and -3% among white men.
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Trump also has -43% job approval among Gen Z voters and -42% among independents.
A total of 40% of respondents approved of American military action against Iran, with 52% in opposition.
Respondents were also asked if they are “more concerned about prices staying high because of the war with Iran,” or if they “believe those higher prices are a necessary cost to help keep America safe.”
A mere 18% said the higher prices are a necessary cost, 55% said they were more concerned about prices staying high, and 22% said “both equally.”
In response to the numbers, White House spokesman Kush Desai told the Daily Signal, “While the president has been clear about short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, the administration remains focused on implementing the proven Trump agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance to keep America on a solid economic trajectory.”
Desai added, “Once the Iranian terror threat is neutralized and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments pour in.”
Trump’s low marks are roughly in line with the 33% of Michigan respondents who approve of how the Republican Party is handling its job. About 55% disapprove.
The Democratic Party also has a low approval rating, although fewer voters disapprove of it.
Thirty-three percent of voters approve of the Democratic Party in the survey, and 51% disapprove.
Another relatively promising sign for Democrats is that 46% of respondents say they would vote for the Democrat candidate if “the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in [their] district were held today,” compared to 38% who would vote Republican.
A Tight Senate Race
The survey is not completely positive for Democrats, as the Republican candidate for Senate, Rogers, is within striking distance of the three Democrats he could face in November.
Rogers, who narrowly lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., in 2024, is carrying Trump’s endorsement as he seeks to flip the seat of retiring Democrat Sen. Gary Peters.
The poll suggests U.S. Rep Haley Stevens is the strongest Democrat, polling with 45% support against Rogers’ 38% in a hypothetical matchup. Six percent supported “someone else,” whereas 10% were “unsure.”
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow holds a slimmer lead than Stevens in a matchup with Rogers, with 42% support against his 39%. Six percent again expressed a preference for someone else, and 13% were unsure.
The weakest polling Democrat of all is former health official Abdul El-Sayed, who is tied with Rogers at 40% support, with 7% choosing someone else and 13% unsure.
Rogers has a 33% favorable and 35% unfavorable rating in the survey. His favorability rating is competitive with those of El-Sayed (29% favorable and 28% favorable), McMorrow (26% favorable and 21% unfavorable), and Stevens (34% favorable and 27% unfavorable).
“This is the number one race in the country, and it will be a battle to the finish. But Mike Rogers has consistently proven that he has what it takes to win and fix everything the Democrats broke during last 32 years of their single-party rule,” Rogers spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet told The Daily Signal in a statement.
“Michiganders are ready for change. While the Democrats battle to see who can raise taxes and put boys in girls’ sports, Mike Rogers is focused on delivering for working families—from bringing back jobs, to saving our schools, and making life more affordable,” she added.
Joetta Appiah, a spokesperson for Stevens’ campaign, responded to the polling numbers in a statement, telling the Daily Signal, “This poll reinforces what poll after poll has consistently shown: Haley Stevens is the strongest Democrat in the race and best positioned to defeat Mike Rogers in November.”
She added, “Haley continues to build the broad coalition needed to win statewide, including strong support from independent and Black voters. Michigan Democrats are focused on winning this seat, and the data continues to show Haley is in the strongest position to get that done.”
Roxie Richner, a communications director for El-Sayed’s campaign, told the Daily Signal in a statement, “When we began this primary, Abdul was polling in third place. Since, we’ve built a dominant campaign, going to nearly 100 cities and 375 public events, engaging voters through social and traditional media, and building an unstoppable ground game—all driven by a candidate who has [taken] the time to listen and does not pull his punches against a bought off establishment of which Mike Rogers is a mascot. And now Abdul is surging. It turns out that campaigns matter. And when this one is done in November, Abdul will have dominated Rogers by seven points.”
Jackson Boaz, a spokesman for McMorrow, also responded to the polling, telling The Daily Signal in a statement, “The same day the Michigan GOP chair said they do not want to run against Mallory in the general election, a shady MAGA group run by a top Trump official released a poll trying to wish that into reality.”
He continued, “Mallory is laser focused on meeting Michiganders where that are—and every poll in this race has shown that she is the only candidate who can win the primary, unite the party, and defeat Mike Rogers in November.”
Sour on Muslim Immigration
Despite the generally bleak picture for Republicans in the short term, the survey reveals the extent to which a negative view of mass migration has become part of the political mainstream.
The Detroit area is home to large Muslim and Middle Eastern immigrant communities.
“Americans increasingly realize that mass migration has not served our country well, especially not from the Third World,” Cortes concludes from the survey’s results.
According to the polling, a mere 19% of Michiganders say mass migration, particularly from poorer countries, has been “good for Michigan,” compared to 35% who say it has been “bad for Michigan.”
Thirty percent said the mass migration from poorer countries has “not made much difference,” and 16% were not sure.
The poll also shows widespread opposition to further Muslim immigration into Michigan.
A whopping 25% of respondents said Michigan has accepted “far too many” Muslim immigrants, and 12% said the state has accepted “somewhat too many.” Thirty percent said the number is “about right.”
A total of only 6% said Michigan had accepted too few Muslim immigrants.
Michiganders’ opinions on Christian immigrants are more positive, although few respondents said the state should accept more.
Seven percent of respondents said Michigan has accepted far too many Chirstian immigrants and eight percent said the state had accepted somewhat too many. A 39% plurality said the amount was about right. A combined 13% said Michigan had accepted too few, and 34% said they were not sure.
Cortes views these numbers as a positive development.
“Muslim mass migration presents particular challenges, and more Americans are willing to say so. The vibe has shifted and we don’t whisper any longer,” he said.
Cortes continued, “A large Muslim inflow to America is a threat to our culture and our way of life, and patriotic Michigan voters do not want to follow Europe’s dismal example of civilizational erasure.”
This article has been updated.
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