With potential Democrat candidates already laying the groundwork for 2028, a new poll claims to identify the party’s front-runners for a comeback bid.
A May 24-25 survey from Emerson College Polling shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading the prospective race with 18% support to be the party’s nominee from likely Democrat primary voters.
Closely trailing Buttigieg is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with 16% support—a steep drop from the 25% he had in an August 2025 survey.
The survey has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
In the middle of the pack are New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 11% backing, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris both at 10%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%.
Eighteen percent of voters remain undecided—a drop from 24% in February, but higher than the 16% in August 2025.
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Additionally, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has 4.4% support, and California Rep. Ro Khanna has 1%.
Republican Rubiomania?
Emerson also surveyed likely Republican primary voters in the upcoming 2028 race, presenting a much simpler picture.
The survey shows Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio practically tied with 36% and 35% support to be the nominee, respectively.
This is a major shift from February, when Vance led the field with 52% support and Rubio trailed with 20%.
The Republican survey has the same margin of error as the Democrat survey.
Vance has recently shrugged off early questions about presidential ambitions, saying, “I’m not a potential future candidate. I’m a vice president, and I really like my job.”
Rubio told Vanity Fair in an article published in December that “if JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
There is no close third, as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley both have 5% support to be the nominee.
Fifteen percent of voters are undecided, up from 11% in February.
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