Brand-new polling conducted by TIPP Insights for my League of American Workers reveals a commanding +14% lead for Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary for the U.S. House of Representatives race in Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District.
Alfonso earned the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who recognizes serious political talent and philosophical alignment in this young outsider candidate. His family roots trace to Cuba, where his grandparents escaped the tyranny of Castro and the communist takeover of the island. After settling in Wisconsin, Alfonso experienced a typical “Northwoods” childhood that included hockey, football, and a deep love for the country that became a refuge for his family.
Speaking of family, Alfonso married his high school classmate Evita Duffy, daughter of Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. In fact, Alfonso is running for the very seat formerly held by his father-in-law, and current polling shows Alfonso with a substantial lead in the race, +14% over his nearest competitor.
Granted, the primary is not until August, and none of the candidates yet has high name recognition in the district. Still, Alfonso appears poised to continue gaining support as he campaigns vigorously and spreads the word about the president’s endorsement in a district Trump won by +20% in 2024.
Beyond that validation, Alfonso himself has a compelling story to tell. He paid his own way through the University of Wisconsin–Madison by working blue-collar jobs in construction and paving. Those jobs are demanding anywhere, but especially so in the harsh winter climate of the 7th District. After graduation, he worked full-time in those industries before pivoting to media and politics. In media appearances, both he and his telegenic wife display formidable on-camera skills, seemingly a prerequisite in today’s digital political era.
More importantly, the message conveyed by Alfonso—whether in person across the district or through a camera lens—is unabashedly “America First.” For example, Alfonso’s platform states that “mass immigration, including programs like H-1B, hurts American workers and undercuts wages. Michael Alfonso will protect our workers and national identity.”
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With that kind of life story and political agenda, Alfonso strikes a chord in the patriotic communities amid the northern forests and lakes. In fact, the new poll of 504 registered voters (with a 4% margin of error) shows that when voters are informed about the Trump endorsement, 62% say they are “more likely” to support Alfonso, while only 7% are “less likely,” with 29% saying it makes “no difference.” When informed about the identity of his locally popular in-laws, 58% of district voters say they are “more likely” to vote for Alfonso.
There are challenges, to be sure, even in this deeply red district. For instance, Trump remains well regarded there, especially compared to other parts of the state, such as Milwaukee, but his job approval margin stands at only +5%, at 49/44%. Certainly, the mostly working-class residents of the 7th District find the high prices of a wartime era difficult to manage.
Nonetheless, among Republicans in the district, Trump remains enormously popular, with a +68% net approval rating at 79-11%. Current U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany is also highly popular in the district, with a +18% overall rating and +68% among GOP voters there. Tiffany will vacate the seat at the end of the current term because he is running for governor of Wisconsin—and he polls very well in my early surveys of that key race.
In 2024, the America First movement earned significant electoral gains among young voters, especially young men. For that nascent trend to continue accelerating, the patriotic populist cause needs smart, media-savvy, compelling young champions—and Michael Alfonso is emerging as just such a leader.
We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of The Daily Signal.
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