Republicans Tout Midterm House Polls in Bid to ‘Defy History’

With a new release of 2026 internal polls, the National Republican Congressional Committee is bullish about winning Democrat-held House districts in areas that have favored President Donald Trump in the past.

“The NRCC surveyed likely general election voters in ME-02, NC-01, NM-02, TX-34, and WA-03, all districts carried by President Trump in 2024,” reads the NRCC announcement. “All surveys show that … Republicans are in a strong position to defy history by holding and growing the House majority.”

House Republicans currently hold a razor-thin 218 seat majority in the 435-seat chamber. 

The internal polling shows Maine Republican former Gov. Paul LePage leading two potential Democrat opponents by 10 points each in the state’s 2nd Congressional District.

Additionally, the NRCC says that Washington’s Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun leads Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points in the hotly contested 3rd Congressional District.

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Vincent Morris, a spokesman for Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign, told The Daily Signal in a statement, “The last thing Marie is concerned with is chatter from hyper-partisans in DC. Marie will do what is right for SW Washington, regardless of what any poll or consultant tells her. Marie cares about the real issues that matter to her constituents and works relentlessly in Congress to improve their lives.”

The NRCC also claims that Texas’ heavily Hispanic 34th Congressional District is up for grabs, with Republican Eric Flores leading incumbent Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez 41% to 40% in their poll.

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, whose lines were shifted in Republicans’ favor through midcycle redistricting in 2025, is also a tight contest, the NRCC says. 

According to the polling, Republican Laurie Buckhout is tied with incumbent Democrat Rep. Don Davis. 

Hannah Spengler, a senior adviser to Davis, told The Daily Signal in a statement, “Given the aggressive partisan redistricting effort specifically designed to make this seat more difficult for Congressman Davis, the fact that Republicans are already publicly touting a tied race says more about their concerns than their confidence.”

She added, “If Republicans are spending this much time and energy trying to convince people they are competitive in a district they intentionally redrew to favor their side, that is a clear sign they understand this will remain one of the most competitive House races in the country.”

Finally, the NRCC says that Republican Greg Cunningham is closely trailing incumbent Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez 43% to 41% in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.

The NRCC argues that several national trends favor them.

“Democrats are increasingly out of step, tethered to a crumbling national brand that prioritizes far-left policies over their districts’ priorities,” the NRCC’s memo reads.

“Republicans are capitalizing on that disconnect with battle-tested candidates, early investments, high fundraising numbers, and disciplined messaging that draws a clear contrast,” the memo added.

In a statement to Politico, the NRCC’s Democrat counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, challenged the memo.

“No matter how Republicans try to manipulate push polling on the House battlefield, they can’t stop the inevitable—we are taking back the House in November,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said.

This article has been updated with comment from Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign.