Gallego, Immigration Signal Trouble for Arizona Democrats in Midterms, Poll Shows

FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL — A new poll from the League of American Workers finds a majority of voters view the war with Iran negatively but aspects of the immigration enforcement agenda positively, underscoring potential headwinds for both political parties heading into the midterm elections.

A large portion of voters also indicated that they think worse of Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego for his close ties to disgraced former Congressman Eric Swalwell, who is currently under criminal investigation for sexual assault.

“Clearly this swing‑state poll adds further evidence that the midterms will be challenging for President Trump and Republicans,” League of American Workers founder Steve Cortes told The Daily Signal. “Voters remain deeply unhappy with the economy and largely assign blame now to the governing GOP.”

The poll, which surveyed more than 1,500 registered voters, found that 51% are concerned about rising prices since the start of the war, while 31% said they hold a net positive view of the conflict overall.

Still, Cortes said the war has not yet become a decisive political liability.

“Although the war with Iran is overall unpopular, it does not appear to yet be a material negative for Trump or other Republicans, as shown by my last three swing‑state polls—two in Wisconsin and now this one in Arizona,” Cortes said. “Will that sentiment change if the war persists into summer? For the GOP, hopefully there is a peace reached soon and it won’t be on voters’ minds by November.”

Just 39% of respondents said they approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing, while 70% of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 said they are “very interested” in the upcoming midterms.

Despite voter unease over the Iran conflict, the poll found strong support for the administration’s immigration policies, including mass deportations, visa restrictions, and cooperation between local and federal law enforcement.

Overall, 66% of respondents said state and local police should cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement, including 45% of Harris voters and 52% of Hispanic voters.

“Immigration remains the best issue for the GOP overall,” Cortes said. “This poll shows massive supermajority support for law enforcement cooperation on immigration. Inexplicably, an influential cohort of Washington Republicans seems hell‑bent on retreating on immigration—the one macro issue where voters really back the GOP.”

Arizona Issues

The survey also found that 18% of the state’s voters remain undecided in the upcoming gubernatorial election, which is slated for November.

Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., is looking to unseat incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs, who has been accused by critics of catering to the Chinese Communist Party.

In June of 2025, Hobbs was slammed by Republican opponents for vetoing a bill that would have prohibited the sale of land near U.S. military bases to Chinese affiliates. In September, the governor’s reelection campaign accepted a $10,000 check from Pin Ni, a CCP member.

As seen in the poll, Hobbs holds a 10 point advantage over Biggs, while 18% of voters remain undecided.

In the same poll, a portion of voters also complained about the local tax burden imposed on them by the state. Twenty-seven percent of voters indicated in the survey that they are upset about the state’s gas tax, 24% complained about the sales tax, 18% were negative on the property tax, and 13% were unhappy about the income tax.

The public education system in the state, which is largely funded by the revenue generated from those taxes, was also deemed unfavorable by voters. Only 26% of voters surveyed rated the education system as “excellent or good,” 61% of the voters indicated it as “fair or poor,” while 65% of the Hispanic voters surveyed indicated it as “fair or poor.”

Overall, only 15% of voters said the state’s education system is a “good deal” for taxpayers. In total, 76% of those voters said addressing the education system was “very important” for the governor’s race.

Gallego-Swalwell Bromance

Ultimately, 32% of voters indicated in the poll that they think worse of Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., for his close friendship with former Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif.

Swalwell was pressured to resign from the U.S. House of Representatives and his gubernatorial campaign in April after he was accused of sexual predation, rape, and assault by multiple former staffers.

Gallego served as campaign chairman for Swalwell’s presidential bid in 2020, repeatedly called him his “best friend,” and took a couples trip with him to Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.