As Experts Warn of Possible Recession, Americans Offer Mixed Reaction on State of Economy

As investment bank Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% at the beginning of April, Americans’ opinions on the economy continue to be mixed, according to a new poll.  

RMG Research conducted the national survey of 1,000 registered voters on behalf of the Napolitan Institute to poll Americans’ opinions on the state of the economy.  

The data, collected from March 31 to April 1, indicates most registered voters are not happy with the state of the economy but do not believe the U.S. is in recession.  

Just 22% rated the economy as “good” or “excellent.” Most said the economy was either “fair” (37%) or “poor” (38%), with Democrats more likely to respond that the economy was poor (52%) than Republicans (22%). Democrats and Republicans polled within three percentage points of each other when responding that the economy was fair (36% and 39%, respectively).  

Voters appeared divided as to whether the country was in a state of recession or not, with 34% responding “yes” and 38% responding “no.” A total of 28% responded “not sure.” Only 11% responded that the U.S. is not in recession but is likely to enter a recession over the next six months.  

Some of the most likely demographic groups to say the country was in recession included young people ages 18-34 (50%), the self-employed (49%), and Hispanics (47%). 

Respondents were about evenly split when asked whether businesses in their areas were more likely to be hiring (27%) or laying off workers (30%). This data remains unchanged from September, according to Napolitan. Republicans (45%) were much more likely to respond that businesses were hiring than were Democrats (17%). A large number of Democrat respondents said businesses were laying off workers (42%) compared to just 18% of Republicans. 

A majority of all respondents (63%) said it is a very difficult or somewhat difficult time for someone who has been laid off to find a job. That’s up from 45% in September. Only 45% believe it’s a good time to be looking for a job, down from 65% last September.  

Closer to home, most voters said their personal finances were either good (30%) or fair (39%), with 9% saying they were excellent. When asked if their personal finances were getting better or worse, many said they were staying about the same (40%), 27% said they were getting somewhat or much better, and 32% said they were getting somewhat or much worse.   

Certain demographic quotas were applied in the selection of respondents to ensure the final sample was representative of the nation’s population of registered voters. The margin of sampling error is 3.1 percentage points.