EXCLUSIVE: House Oversight Probes Why Census Miscounts Boost Democrats in Electoral College, Apportionment

• September 18, 2024

FIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—A key House committee has begun an investigation into Census Bureau overcounts and undercounts that favor Democrats in awarding congressional apportionment and Electoral College votes.

House Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., wrote Census Bureau Director Robert Santos on Wednesday to inquire about its communications about the overcounts and undercounts of state populations with the Biden-Harris administration and its Commerce Department, which includes the bureau.

After the 2020 census, the Census Bureau’s 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey, or PES, released the following year identified significant errors in the counts.

Such miscounts did not occur in the 2010 census, Comer noted in his letter to Santos.

“Significantly, these errors likely led to an erroneous apportionment of representatives among the states,” Comer wrote in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by The Daily Signal. “Even relatively small differences in population count can affect congressional representation, as a single congressional seat cannot be divided among multiple states."

"Undercounts or overcounts can be the deciding factor between a state gaining or losing an additional representative in its delegation,” the Kentucky Republican wrote.

A Census Bureau spokesperson did not respond to an inquiry for this report before publication.

The miscounts disproportionately favor Democrats, Comer wrote to the Census Bureau director.

“The 2020 PES identified statistically significant overcounts in New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Delaware, Minnesota, Utah, and Ohio, while finding undercounts in states like Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Illinois,” he wrote. “Of the eight states overcounted in the 2020 census, six states have typically voted for electors for the Democratic Party candidate in presidential elections for the last three decades.”

Census-Letter to Census 091824[96]Download

Comer's letter continues:

Of the six states undercounted in the 2020 census, all but one have tended to vote for electors for the Republican Party candidate in elections over the same time period. Because of the 2020 census’s failure to accurately count, Colorado gained a seat it did not deserve, Rhode Island and Minnesota kept seats they should have lost, and Texas and Florida were not awarded seats they should have gained.

Fred Lucas | Senior Investigative Reporter

Fred Lucas is senior investigative reporter for the Daily Signal. He is the author of “The Myth of Voter Suppression: The Left’s Assault on Clean Elections.”

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