The List Is Out of 10 Most Vulnerable House Members for Midterms

The 2026 midterms offer plenty of races to watch as Republicans try to buck the historical trend of the president’s party losing seats. Both political parties have turned to redistricting, which is having an effect on races.

Roll Call released its list of the 10 most vulnerable House members, many in order of newsworthiness.

Emanuel Cleaver II, Democrat for Missouri’s 5th Congressional District

“Regarded as the most vulnerable House member, Emanuel Cleaver II is a casualty of redistricting, almost certainly bringing his 20 years of serving in the House to a close.

The congressman most recently won reelection by +23.8. Per the new maps, President Donald Trump won the district by +18.4, which is considered “Solid Republican.”

There’s even more intriguing races from there, though.

Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat for Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

Although Roll Call ranks Kaptur eighth, her race is perhaps the most newsworthy. She was first elected in 1983, making her the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Trump framed her as a “Career Politician” in a Truth Social post endorsing her Republican opponent, former state Rep. Derek Merrin.

TRENDING ARTICLES

news

Supreme Court Weighs in 8-1 on Cuba-Tied Lawsuit

Fred Lucas

NO TYPE SET

Seattle’s Socialist Mayor Now Panicking Over Businesses Leaving

Jarrett Stepman

news

Tulsi Gabbard Resigns From Trump’s Cabinet for Heartbreaking Reason

Bradley Devlin

Referring to Merrin as an “American First Patriot,” Trump railed against Kaptur for voting against tax cuts. He also referenced immigration, men in women’s sports, and voter ID. “She is Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!” Trump declared.

Merrin lost to Kaptur by just 0.7 last cycle in a district the president won significantly. Ohio was required to redistrict for 2026, and the new map favors Republicans even more so, with Trump having won the new lines by +10.6. Merrin emerged victorious from a crowded primary earlier this month.

The race is regarded as “Tilt Republican,” and the redistricting is crucial, but it will be noteworthy to see if Kaptur still hangs on, as she’s done in the past, with Roll Call describing her as “a political survivor who’s weathered red waves before.”

Dan Goldman, Democrat for New York’s 10th Congressional District

Dan Goldman won this New York City district by +67.3 in 2024, but the congressman is in danger of losing to another Democrat in what Roll Call describes as a “stiff primary challenge” from former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran for mayor last year.

Goldman and Lander’s opposing views on Israel have played a role, with the congressman tagging Lander in an X post asking if he’d “condemn … or continue to encourage this disgusting rhetoric from” Texas congressional candidate and fellow Democrat Maureen Galindo after she made headlines for calling for Zionists to be placed in a “prison.”

The congressman initially won his seat in a crowded 2022 Democrat primary following a nasty redistricting battle that ousted former Rep. Mondaire Jones.

Mariannette Miller Meeks, Republican for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District

Roll Call speaks to “guarded optimism” for Democrats with this seat. Not only did Mariannette Miller-Meeks win in 2020 by just six votes, but she won in 2024 by +0.2, while Trump won by +8.5 that cycle. Miller-Meeks could face her Democrat challenger from that cycle, Christina Bohannan, in November. Both Miller-Meeks and Bohannan have primary challengers.

This race is regarded as a “Toss-Up” and could especially be one to watch if there’s a margin of single digits again this time. There’s also a race for governor and U.S. Senate out of Iowa.

Gabe Evans, a Republican for Colorado’s 8th Congressional District

Gabe Evans is only the second representative to serve this district, which was created following the 2022 census. He flipped the seat in 2024, and it’s once more seen as a pickup seat, with Roll Call mentioning “cost of living concerns among the largely working class electorate.” There’s a “but,” though, via a crowded Democrat primary.

Evans won by +0.8 in 2024, while Trump’s margin was +1.8. The race is regarded as a “Toss-Up.”

Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican for Pennsylvania’s 7th District

A freshman, Ryan Mackenzie flipped the seat in 2024 by +1.0, which Trump won by +3.2, and Democrats are hoping they can flip it back with Bob Brooks as their nominee. Brooks is described by Roll Call as “a working-class candidate” who “has consolidated support from across the party spectrum.”

The race is regarded as a “Toss-Up” and Roll Call notes it will be “among the most closely watched races in a state that could determine the House majority this fall.”

Don Davis, a Democrat for North Carolina’s 1st District

Don Davis is once again running in a closely watched race, having won by +1.7 in 2024. His district was redrawn in 2022 and 2026. Roll Call mentions “a moderate voting record” for Davis, who “breaks with his party.”

Under the new lines, Trump won Davis’ district by +11.6 in 2024.

He’s facing a rematch against his Republican opponent from 2024, retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, in this “Tilt Republican” race.

Juan Ciscomani, Republican for Arizona’s 6th Congressional District

Juan Ciscomani outperformed Trump with his 2024 win in the district, winning by +2.5 to Trump’s +0.7.

Although Ciscomani, who was first elected in 2022, managed to beat former state Sen. Kirsten Engel twice, he has a new opponent this year, Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza. Mendoza is described as “a prolific fundraiser with a working-class background” and one who “has emphasized cost-of-living concerns.”

The race is regarded as a “Toss-Up.”

Kevin Kiley, Republican-Turned-Independent for California’s 6th Congressional District

Kevin Kiley, who currently represents California’s 3rd Congressional District, announced he was switching his party affiliation in March. He, too, is affected by redistricting, with Proposition 50 having passed in California last fall.

California has a jungle primary, where the top two vote-getters head to the general election, regardless of party.

Although Kiley won by +11.0 in 2024 in the 3rd District, Trump’s margin under the new 6th was -8.4, making this a “Likely Democratic” race.

Darren Soto, Democrat for Florida’s 9th Congressional District

Darren Soto won by +12.5 in 2024, but Florida recently got involved in redistricting as well, with Trump having won the new lines by +17.8.

It appears that Soto is still in the fight, though, as Roll Call noted that Democrats added him to the Frontline list for vulnerable members.

Roll Call’s ranking of vulnerable members of Congress, starting from most vulnerable, is Cleaver, Kiley, Miller-Meeks, Evans, Davis, Mackenzie, Ciscomani, Kaptur, Goldman, and Soto.