California Bucks National Trend as Voter ID Initiative Faces Uphill Fight

Current polling shows a voter ID ballot measure could be headed for defeat in California even as the policy is overwhelmingly popular nationwide.

A Berkeley University Institute for Governmental Studies poll shows that a slim majority of Californians, 51%, oppose Proposition 39, a ballot measure to adopt voter ID. Just 42% support it, still leaving a sizeable number of undecided voters.

Though some national polls show more than 80% of Americans back voter ID, support for Prop 39 breaks down along party lines in California, with 80% of Democrats opposed and 93% of Republicans supportive.

Currently, 36 states require that voters provide some form of identification such as a utility bill, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Twenty-three of those states require government-issued photo ID to vote. California does not require voter identification, but Prop 39 would mandate government-issued photo ID to vote.

A Fox News poll in July found 83% support for voter ID, including 93% of Republicans, 74% of Democrats, even 66% of voters who self-identified with the Democratic Socialists of America. The policy also received support from 84% of non-white voters, 83% of white voters, and 85% of Hispanic voters.

A Napolitan News Service poll in February found 81% support for voter ID. A Pew Research Center poll in August 2025 found 83% of adults strongly or somewhat favoring voter ID overall.

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On Tuesday, California Democrat lawmakers, including U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, and Senate President pro Tem Monique Limón, gathered in Sacramento for a rally opposed to voter ID, claiming it was “voter suppression.”

The California poll showed that 56% of voters were aware of the ballot initiative. However, most voters seemed to view it through a partisan lens, noted Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, in a public statement.

Schickler noted that the same poll found a closer contest for Proposition 40, a 5% billionaire’s tax opposed by some elected Democrats who warn of a negative economic impact. Nearly half of respondents, 48%, favor the tax, and 41% oppose.

“By contrast, foes of the Voter ID initiative have already started to solidify making it a more typical Democratic-Republican fight, in which Democrats in California generally hold the advantage,” Schickler said.

The poll also showed the voter ID measure performed poorly among women under 40, black voters, and voters living in a union household.