POLL: Marine Veteran Leads in Close and Crowded Florida Republican Primary

• August 17, 2026

A person in a suit points at a screen displaying two maps of Florida labeled Previous Map and New Map, showing different district boundaries.

Oliver Larkin, Democrat candidate for Congress in Florida’s 23rd District, speaks during an emergency town hall that he held to address Florida Republicans’ newly approved congressional redistricting map (seen on the wall) on May 4, 2026, in Coral Springs, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

With only hours to go before primary election day, a new poll shows three candidates running neck-and-neck in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District, with a fourth on their heels and nearly half of Republican voters remaining undecided.

The reshaped 22nd District, formed under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ redistricting map, could give Floridians the opportunity to send yet another conservative to Washington, as President Donald Trump earned 54% of the vote there in 2024.

The poll of 432 likely Republican primary voters, conducted by National Victory Strategies and shared first with the Daily Signal, shows businessman Casey Askar holding a narrow lead in a crowded field on the eve of the election.

The Marine veteran and successful businessman has 16% support, only 3% ahead of cryptocurrency trader and entrepreneur Michael Carbonara, and 6% ahead of former police Officer David Burke.

Belinda Keiser, who has a net worth close to $487 million and is the co-founder of Keiser University, a private college in the district, is seen trailing Askar by 8%.

Other candidates in the race, like political consultant Terri Hasdorff, and Lee County Executive Committee Chair Michael Thompson, came in close to 5% support, while commercial insurance auditor Richard Evans registered less than 1% of the vote.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, meaning the top three candidates are within the poll’s margin of error. Plus, 46% of the respondents indicated that they were undecided, signaling Tuesday’s primary is truly a toss-up.

The relevant campaigns did not respond to the Daily Signal’s request for comment.

The victor of the Republican primary, scheduled for Aug. 18, will face off against the Democrat nominee in the November general election.

The Democrat primary is being contested by Pia Dandiya, former Department of Education fellow under former President Joe Biden, and trial lawyer Kaysia Earley.

National Victory Strategies is a polling and media firm that operates in more than 30 states and conducts research on political, public policy, and corporate issues.

Pedro Rodriguez | Journalism Fellow

Pedro Boccalato Rodriguez-Aparicio is a journalism fellow at the Daily Signal.

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