2 Ways to Fix Inflation

Housing affordability is awful, and it looks set to get worse. Unless, of course, we take corrective action, especially on immigration and war.

Here’s the harsh current reality: Inflation continues to bedevil far too many Americans. Other than owners of substantial assets, wage earners have struggled in this economy for five years, ever since the profligacy of the COVID-19 panic sent prices surging.

Consider the kitchen-table fallout from this inflation. Right now, mortgage rates are rising as U.S. Treasury yields climb. Bond investors worldwide demand higher yields to lend money to America, a country grappling with nearly a staggering $40 trillion in federal debt.

Consequently, here is the math with 30-year mortgages at 6.78% on average nationwide, vs. 3.0% rates that were available in 2021, just before the Bidenomics inflation started to vault higher:

Today, assuming a $500,000 home and 20% down, the current monthly payment is $2,602 for principal and interest.

In 2021, assuming a $500,000 home and 20% down, the monthly payment was $1,686 for principal and interest.

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So, Americans have seen a nearly $1,000-per-month difference, a whopping 54% increase in five years. Moreover, that troubling jump includes a substantial six-figure down payment that few Americans can currently afford. In addition, in many parts of the country, a half-million-dollar home is only a modest one.

The story is not just about housing, though. Rising inflation and interest rates also send student loan delinquency to alarming highs and credit card serious delinquencies to the worst levels since 2011. Among borrowers trading in vehicles with negative equity, the average borrower is $7,200 underwater on the vehicle.

These circumstances explain most of the current pessimism that pervades much of American life—and that sentiment clearly weighs on President Donald Trump and all Republicans as the governing party. Though the inflationary fires were stoked more by former President Joe Biden, the political reality is that those currently in charge take the blame.

Immigration

The quickest and most effective policy lever flows from immigration enforcement and restriction. First, removing illegal aliens from the labor market provides immediate benefits to U.S. citizen workers. Real wages comprise the “mother’s milk” of middle-class prosperity, meaning pay adjusted for the cost of living. During the Biden years, real disposable personal income fell sharply for two straight years. This misery for working-class Americans resulted, in part, from masses of illegal workers who swarmed across Biden’s open border.

Once Trump closed the border, real wages rebounded to positive territory, though this key gauge recently dipped negative again because of the price spikes caused by the Iran war.

So, from here, to keep real pay rising for U.S. citizens, accelerate the internal enforcement. The laborers of America demand and deserve aggressive workplace enforcement actions, more pressure upon employers employing illegal immigrants, and intense incentives and pushes for illegal aliens to self-deport. The progress so far has been heartening, but anxious American workers need more.

On the cost side of the ledger, the artificial demand for housing, goods, and services from tens of millions of illegal immigrants puts material upward pressure on prices. The Federal Reserve Bank of Texas recently released a working paper that showed illegal aliens accounted for an appalling 30% of the increase in house prices.

End the War

Fighting an overseas war is simply an incredible unplanned expense burden for an already deficit-strapped country. The Pentagon reports that $37 billion in direct costs have already been expended, and it has formally requested another $67 billion from Congress to fund ongoing operations. Moody’s Analytics pegs the overall costs to consumers at around $132 billion and counting as of June, mostly via elevated energy costs.

Of course, war is always costly, both in human and economic terms. In fact, the current mammoth indebtedness of the United States flows in large part from decades of overseas interventions. The Global War on Terror cost a mind-blowing $8 trillion total, according to Brown University.

It seems clear that we cannot achieve budget sanity and fight endless large-scale overseas wars concurrently. Even though our military prowess is unmatched, our financing capacity is not. Hard choices must be made as global capital markets demand higher rates to lend to debt-addled nations, including America.

In my latest poll of battleground state Georgia, by a wide +25% margin, voters there said they are more concerned about rising costs created by war than they are about the threat of a nuclear Iran, 58-33%. Among Independents, that spread surges to +41% net more concerned about costs.

This war does not have widespread public support. There is simply no popular appetite for a sustained armed struggle in the Middle East.

Even if the strategic aims of the war make sense, in a republic the will of the people carries great weight. Moreover, the hangover effects of five years of profligate borrowing and spending limit America’s options now.

But amidst these severe challenges, reason for hope endures. The economy’s pre-war trajectory was solid. In recent months, manufacturing has soared as the America First agenda of onshoring proves the efficacy of President Trump’s reorientation of trade and production.

So, if we pursue tough strategies on immigration and immediately seek a satisfactory conclusion to the Iran war, America can quickly resume a solid pace of recovery that will grow wallets and resurrect optimism. With crucial elections only three months away, it is time to act with the urgency the moment demands.

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