Markets Offer Unusual Bets on State of the Union

Ahead of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, online prediction markets are offering bets on a host of questions.

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have exploded in popularity in recent years, raising legal and regulatory questions.

Here are some of the unusual wagers these services are offering when Trump takes the lectern on Tuesday night.

Trump’s Handshake With Vice President JD Vance

Polymarket users can bet on exactly how long Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s handshake will be at the address. As of Monday, Feb. 23, the market favored a handshake of under two seconds. 

However, this market has been volatile, as seen with the decline of the “no handshake” option, which had an over 25% likelihood on the market last Wednesday, but had dropped to below 10% by Thursday.

The market has a very exact definition of a handshake.

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“The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person,” reads the description of the market. “Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).”

‘Million, Billion, Trillion’

Polymarket is also taking bets on what exactly Trump will say, and how many times he will say it.

According to the market, there is an 91% chance as of Monday that Trump will say “million,” “billion,” or “trillion” over 15 times during his speech.

Polymarket offers dozens of other bets on Trump’s word choice, such as how many times he will say “job,” “border,” or “Biden.”

The market indicates there is a 82% chance Trump says the word “hottest” and a 22% chance he mentions “IQ.” 

Who Will Be There?

Kalshi offers dozens of prediction markets on who will be in the audience at the address.

For example, as of Monday morning, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has a 97% chance of being in attendance, per the market. 

The attendance of Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, who disrupted Trump’s address to Congress last year, is a coin toss at 53%.

Meanwhile, the market gives Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom of California a less than 1% chance of being in attendance. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who has said he will boycott the address, also has a less than 1% chance of attending, per the market.