How’s That Redistricting Process Going for Ohio?

The Ohio redistricting committee has reportedly struck a deal just in time for an Oct. 31 deadline to submit new congressional maps.

That scoop comes from Punchbowl News’ Thursday morning newsletter, with that deal reportedly being reached “after hours of late-night deliberations.” This allows the redistricting committee to move along with the process. If a deal had not been reached, redistricting would go back to the Republican-controlled General Assembly.

Several states have been in the news in recent months over redistricting efforts, including Ohio, especially when it comes to its uniqueness in the process. Unlike other states, Ohio is required to redraw its congressional maps for 2026, as the current maps did not pass with bipartisan support.

Ohio’s 15 congressional districts include 10 Republicans and five Democrats. There’s three particularly vulnerable Democrats worth watching, including Reps. Marcy Kaptur in the 9th Congressional District, Emilia Sykes in the 13th Congressional District, and Greg Landsman in the 1st Congressional District. Kaptur and Sykes are particularly vulnerable, though it’s Kaptur and Landsman’s districts that will become redder while Sykes’ district will become more favorable, “although it will still be very competitive,” the Punchbowl newsletter reveals.

The Daily Signal reached out to the campaigns for Kaptur, Sykes, and Landsman.

That the deal appears to have been reached is a “shocking development,” Punchbowl noted. “Both parties expected the commission to reach a stalemate and that redistricting would revert back the state’s GOP-controlled Legislature.”

Punchbowl also offers some insight as to why it looks like there’s been an agreement, with a mention of how it could have been worse, especially for the three Democrat members:

This new map proposal is certainly worse for Democrats. But it’s not as bad as it could be. In a very strong Democratic year, Kaptur, Landsman and Sykes could win reelection.

Republicans on the Ohio Redistricting Commission showed Democrats a map that would doom Kaptur, Sykes and Landsman, according to a source close to the process, and they said the state legislature would introduce that 13R-2D map on Nov. 1 if no deal was reached by the commission.

The Calculus. This map is a safe bet for Democrats. Two seats get worse, but one gets slightly better. Why would they hesitate to take it?

The redistricting commission map is final. A legislature-enacted map could be frozen for 2026 and put before the voters in a referendum if Democrats can collect some 250,000 signatures in 90 days.

What would have happened without an agreement? Not only the likelihood of lawsuits, but also a referendum effort. “But Democrats were able to successfully leverage the prospect of a referendum campaign. For their part, Republicans dangled the threat of pushing through a less favorable map if Democrats rejected their offer,” Punchbowl mentioned. “Meanwhile, Republicans accepted a worse map than they may have had otherwise in exchange for avoiding the uncertainty of a referendum,” the newsletter also shared.

Although the ballot initiative is described as a “high-risk, high-reward” option, it’s worth reminding that Ohio voters just last year rejected creating a supposedly independent commission to get involved in the redistricting process.

State Rep. Brian Stewart, a Republican who was appointed by Speaker Matt Huffman, has led the commission and posted about it on X on Wednesday, noting that they met last week.

The Daily Signal also reached out to Stewart for comment.

The commission will meet Thursday at 4 p.m., as Punchbowl and other outlets such as The Columbus Dispatch have noted.

But again, Ohio is not the only state earning headlines over redistricting. In California, voters next week will decide on a redistricting ballot measure heavily promoted by Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom. Virginia Democrats also are eager to redistrict the commonwealth, where there are six Democrats and five Republicans representing Virginia in the U.S. House of Representatives. This is despite voters in 2020 overwhelmingly passing a ballot initiative approving an independent commission.

For all of this eagerness for redistricting from Democrats, it’s worth reminding, as Vice President JD Vance and Club for Growth co-founder David McIntosh have pointed out, Democrats have tried these tricks for years, and there’s a need for Republicans to fight back.