Chairman of the House Budget Committee Tom Price (R–GA) announced the appointment of Dr. Keith Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center, as the new Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Hall will take over for Doug Elmendorf, whose term expired in January.
Congratulations and good luck to Dr. Hall.
Although we have had our disagreements with Dr. Elmendorf in the past, we express our gratitude for his public service and his strong leadership at the CBO. We wish him well on his next endeavor.
As in all organizations, the appointment of a new leader marks a new chapter for the CBO. Hall should maintain the CBO’s sterling reputation for estimating the budgetary effects of spending legislation, while leaving his own mark on the organization.
Dynamic Scoring
That should begin with establishing accurate dynamic scoring of certain spending legislation. (Scoring of tax legislation is the domain of the Joint Committee on Taxation.) Until now, the CBO’s methodology for scoring spending dynamically has been incomplete in a way that overinflates the economic benefits of government spending. Hall needs to fix that issue.
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Clear Baselines
As importantly, Dr. Hall will finally need to resolve current problems with the CBO’s presentation of its spending and revenue baselines. He will need to find a way to present them so that Members of Congress will clearly understand whether those baselines reflect current policy or current law.
More Accurate Health Care Modeling
He also needs to update the models that the CBO uses to evaluate changes to health care policy. The ongoing debate about Obamacare’s impact has shown that the CBO’s methods are not up to par.
Entitlement Reform
Lastly, entitlement reform will need to happen in the near future. It is unclear whether the CBO can accurately model modernizations to Social Security and Medicare. Ensuring that the CBO can accurately assess changes to those programs should be one of the new director’s chief tasks.
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