Election Betting on the Rise Ahead of Midterms: Experts Weigh In

With midterms a little over a month away, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has issued a warning to election officials across the state about a topic that some say can interfere with elections.

Election betting is on the rise, not only in the Peach State, but in other states throughout the nation as well.

The Rise of Kalshi and Polymarket

Zac Peskowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, told the Daily Signal that while there used to be “small-scale markets where you could bet on elections,” now there are bigger betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and “they’ve been able to take this [on] at a much bigger scale.”

According to Peskowitz, because betting markets “offer event contracts on lots of non-political events,” this has led to a rise in popularity. “They’ve been able to offer those contracts in states where [gambling such as] sports gambling is illegal,” he said.

Mike Hassinger, public information coordinator for Raffensperger, also told the Daily Signal in an email that there has been a “recent increase in popularity of [these] so-called prediction markets.”

The Role of Ethical Integrity in Elections

Hassinger also asserted that, by giving his warning, “Secretary Raffensperger wanted to point out that election workers and officials need to hold themselves to the highest standards of professionalism and objectivity to maintain public trust in the integrity of Georgia’s election process.”

TRENDING ARTICLES

breaking

Supreme Court Hands Trump Major Victory in Drive to Combat Noncitizen Voting

Fred Lucas

opinion

In an Age of Tribalism, Bill Maher Just Did Something Radical: He Admitted He Was Wrong

Carrie Sheffield

opinion

Mamdani Is Gradually Undermining Public Order in New York City

Jarrett Stepman

Some have noted concerns from election administrators who say that finances could play a role in stirring up distrust of elections if U.S. citizens believe they have the power to alter the outcome of an election.

Betting sites like Polymarket and Kalshi let individuals buy and sell contracts related to potential outcomes of upcoming events. Even though these platforms have been surging, John Tures, a professor of political science at LaGrange College, told the Daily Signal that “betting on outcomes is nothing new.”

“Never has it been so organized, accessible, and part of media discussions as we see now,” Tures said.

According to Tures, these platforms that allow betting on elections “can lead to an unrealistic assessment of the election.” One such example of this is the U.S. Senate race between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins.

While Ossoff is “trending at 95% in Polymarket,” and this can lead people to “think he has a 95% [chance] of winning,” ultimately, “he doesn’t,” Tures said.

According to a study conducted by researchers at the Israel Democracy Institute, there are other concerns that arise with these betting platforms. Specifically, one concern centers around the notion that these platforms can hold the same level of authority as polls, while not being regulated and managed like polls.

Others have voiced concerns over the ethics of betting on elections, particularly when it comes to election officials. Mark Davis, president of Data Productions Inc., told the Daily Signal that “no election official should ever be placing wagers on elections they’re conducting. If nothing else that is an obvious conflict of interest.”

Peskowitz says that while he doesn’t think that “election betting markets themselves … pose a direct threat to the integrity of elections,” there are other areas for concern. This could look like a candidate not doing well in a race “compared to having a high probability of winning in a betting market.”

“There’s also the issue of supporters potentially trying to manipulate a prediction market by putting a lot of money on their preferred candidate,” Peskowitz said.

While experts may have different opinions on betting markets, Tures says that “these numbers, polls or betting … are having an impact on elections, as decisions are made before a vote is cast.”

“The numbers become a self-fulfilling prophecy. … Credibility matters everywhere, but it’s far more critical in politics where the winner could make significant policy decisions affecting so many lives,” Tures concluded.