OPINION

As Air Temperature Cools, Election Heats Up in Virginia

Joe Thomas • October 2, 2025

Despite Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ considerable deficit in campaign contributions (largely due to unending news reports of past polls showing the GOP candidate for Virginia governor trailing by double-digits), the race is now within the margin of error.

Acknowledging that polls are only as accurate as the pollsters’ guess on demographic enthusiasm and the honest responses from those people being called, the most recent Virginia poll shows the same thing as New Jersey’s gubernatorial poll that we reported on last week. In the Garden State, Democrat candidate Mikie Sherrill had lost her 20-percentage-point lead and was tied with Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

The Virginia poll, conducted Sept. 26-28, has Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger still ahead, but by 3%, 48%-45%, against Earle-Sears—within the margin of polling error.

For comparison, in September 2021 during the last Virginia governor’s race, Nexstar/Emerson had former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe ahead 49%-45% against the ultimate winner, Republican Glenn Youngkin. A Monmouth University poll that same month showed similar results, with McAuliffe leading 48%-43%.

Like the New Jersey poll we cited last week, it appears that the pollsters may not be acknowledging the enthusiasm of the “Charlie Kirk voter,” as the polls are showing Spanberger leading among 18- to 44-year-olds with 52% of the vote, compared to Earle-Sears’ 40%.

If the growing enthusiasm on Virginia’s college campuses for Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA brand of conservative political activism is any indicator, that number may be out-of-whack.

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More tangible than poll numbers, though, is the hard data showing that more than twice as many Virginians voted in the first week of early voting this month than they did in 2021’s election—146,000 to 2021’s 69,000. And according to the Virginia Public Access Project, the counties with the highest turnout so far have been Republican-leaning red ones.

This race might be a nailbiter all the way until Election Day.

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