GOP Lags in Virginia Governor’s Race, but Same Was True at This Time in 2021

Democrat former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger has captured a 12-point lead over her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, in the Virginia governor’s race, a Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs poll shows, The Hill has reported. 

Virginia gubernatorial elections have historically gone against the party that won the White House a year earlier, in this case, Republicans and Donald Trump, who won the 2024 presidential election. 

The most recent exception was 2013, when Democrats captured the governor’s office despite President Barack Obama’s reelection a year earlier. 

Virginia has gone blue in presidential races since 2008. 

At this time in 2021, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, the Democrat nominee, led Republican Glenn Youngkin before Youngkin won the race in November. 

The poll shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 49% to 37% among registered voters in the state. This is an increase from the previous Wilder School poll that showed the Democrat with a 10-point lead.

Notably, about half of independents polled said they were undecided. 

The poll found similar results for the down-ticket contests. 

For the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican candidate and conservative talk show host John Reid 46% to 36%. And former Democrat state Del. Jay Jones leads incumbent Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares 47% to 38%.

The Cook Political Report rates the races as “Lean Democratic.” 

The Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University poll surveyed 809 registered voters in Virginia from June 19 through July 3. The margin of error is 4.16%.

Trends can change. In late August 2021, McAuliffe led Youngkin 46% to 38% in a Roanoke College poll. A September poll by Emerson University found McAuliffe’s lead dropped to 49% to 45% before Youngkin ultimately won in November.