The U.S. and China’s Changing Investment Patterns

A new and growing shift in China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from developing to developed world is well underway, and according to The Heritage Foundation and American Enterprise Institute’s China Global Investment Tracker, the prime target in the first half of 2014 was once again the United States.

Until a few years ago, Chinese OFDI was almost exclusively dominated by large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) whose focus was largely energy, land and mineral acquisitions throughout the developing world. While energy OFDI still remains important, more recently SOEs have been investing in more “upscale” assets in the developed world. In fact, the share of Chinese OFDI going to rich or developed countries has shot up from just a tenth in 2002 to over two-thirds in 2013.

For almost three decades, China was a huge net recipient of FDI as it transformed itself into the world’s workshop. As China continues integrating into the global economy and attempts to move up the “value chain”, this three decade long trend is quickly changing. According to UNCTAD’s 2014 World Development Report, FDI inflows to China reached $124 billion last year, while Chinese OFDI rose to $101 billion. It is now widely expected that China will become a net exporter of capital within the next few years.

Private firms are now dominating inflows of Chinese capital into the U.S., accounting for more than 80 percent of transactions and more than 70 percent of total transaction values. Acquisitions in real estate, energy and utilities still account for the bulk of Chinese FDI to the U.S. but Chinese firms are clearly increasing M&A activity in high-tech products and consumer goods which often involve local manufacturing. While the impact on U.S. employment is relatively small, it is growing rapidly. According to the Rhodium Group, it more than doubled to 78,000 last year. Some of the state trade offices estimate that 10 jobs are created for every $500,000 in FDI investments.

Bottom line is that the Chinese are investing more in the U.S. And like investment from anywhere else – barring rare and genuine security concerns – this is a good thing.