Voter Perception Leans Toward El-Sayed After ‘Abolish ICE’ Comment During Debate
Abdul El-Sayed is leading Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., by 15 points ahead of next week’s Democrat primary for the open Senate seat, according to a new poll, marking a sharp rise in support for the progressive candidate after Tuesday night’s Democrat debate.
An Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey released Thursday showed El-Sayed handily defeating Stevens in the primary, 54% to 39%. A separate 6% said they were undecided, while about 2% backed Democrat state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out of the race earlier this summer.
When factoring in undecided Democrat voters who were asked whom they lean toward, El-Sayed rose to 57% while Stevens sat at 41%. A separate 2% supported McMorrow.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that El-Sayed, who is backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., holds the upper hand with younger voters while Stevens performs better with older voters.
“There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67 percent to 25 percent, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53 percent to 39 percent,” Kimball said in a press release.
However, Stevens leads El-Sayed among black voters, 58% to 38%. When undecided voters are factored in, Stevens remains ahead by 30 points, with 63% to El-Sayed’s 33%.
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The centrist faction of the party has become increasingly anxious about El-Sayed securing the Democrat nomination, worrying that his progressive politics may hinder his chances in the general election against Rogers. Some recent polling backs up that view.
Thursday’s Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV poll was conducted July 26-27, with 700 likely Democrat primary voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
This new poll marks a major shift in voter perception of the two candidates after they faced each other in a debate Tuesday night.
During the debate, El-Sayed appeared to gain popularity among voters by referencing Stevens’ donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, as well as the perspective he could bring to Washington as a political outsider.
El-Sayed also called to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
“I’ve said that we need to abolish ICE,” El-Sayed said. “ICE is about normalizing paramilitary force on our streets.”
Stevens responded to the AIPAC remarks by saying that she doesn’t “think there’s much difference between super PACs going in for Abdul or super PACs going in for me.”
Stevens repeatedly accused El-Sayed of not releasing his tax returns, asking what he was hiding from the Michigan people. She also said that El-Sayed has been on many podcasts and has even run his own.
“You have not released your full tax returns—$300,000 in other income while you sat in the podcast chair, and you hawked junk healthcare cures that RFK Jr. would thumbs up,” Stevens charged. “You talk about getting money out of politics and putting money in people’s pockets, but still, no one knows who’s putting the money in your pocket.”
Prior to the debate, the two seemed to be racing neck-and-neck in various polls. A survey conducted by the Glengariff Group on behalf of Business Leaders for Michigan and the Michigan Education Association, which was released last week, showed El-Sayed trailing Stevens by roughly 4%.
Eleven percent of respondents reported being undecided. Meanwhile, the survey showed Stevens narrowly edging out Rogers, 46% to 45%. A separate 9% said they were undecided.
The survey of 600 likely voters across the state has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A different poll from 270toWin showed El-Sayed leading Stevens 37.4% to 35.8%.
El-Sayed and Stevens are running for the Democrat Senate nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. The winner of Tuesday’s primary will face former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., in the general election in November.
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