Birth rates in the U.S. continue to fall, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
U.S. birth rates have been steadily declining for more than a decade now, and the total fertility rate (the number of births a woman is projected to have over her lifetime) has continued to hit new lows for several years.
The preliminary data released this month from the CDC suggest the downward trend in fertility continued in 2025. The birth rate dropped from 53.8 births per 1,000 women in 2024 to 53.1 in 2025, and the total number of births declined by 22,534.
Some media outlets and scholars say the drop in birth rates is good news, and that it is driven by declining teen births as well as by women in their 20s delaying relationships and motherhood until they are more financially and emotionally prepared. They argue births will be made up for down the road.
The reality is not so rosy, though. Teen births did decline, but the overall drop in the birth rate is driven mostly by a declining share of Americans marrying and forming families at all. Declining births among women in their 20s are not being made up for later on either, as marriage is delayed ever further into the life course.
Examining the change in birth rates by age:
- Birth rates among teenage young women dropped, particularly among older teens (ages 18-19).
- The largest decreases in birth rates were among women in their 20s.
- Birth rates among women age 30 and over increased, or in some cases remained steady (among women ages 45-54).
Yes, it is true that teen birth rates fell, which is good news, particularly when we are talking about minor-aged teens. But teen births are too small a share of total births these days to move the needle of the overall birth rate much at all. This is especially the case if you look only at births to minor-aged teen women, the group we should be most concerned about.
Teen births peaked in the early 1990s, after rising for several years. Since then, they have declined drastically, a positive and remarkable reversal. Today, teen births are a small fraction of U.S. births.
In fact, if we had only seen the declines in teen births while the birth rates among other women had remained stable (no decreases among women in their 20s and not even increases among women ages 30 and above), the overall birth rate would have remained nearly stable.
What is happening is that an ever-increasing share of people are failing to marry and have children when they are in their prime childbearing years. With every passing year, the age of marriage increases, fewer people are marrying, and that leads to fewer children being born. Delayed marriage reduces the likelihood of ever marrying. Researchers project that roughly one-third of Gen Z will not have married by age 45 and may never marry at all.
Married couples are much more likely to have children. The average number of children born to married couples has been steady for about three decades, although with some dip in the last few years. The drop in the birth rate is primarily driven by a decline in marriage rates.
While there has been a bump in births among women ages 30 and older—indicating that some of the decline in births to young women are delayed births rather than births foregone—the increase in births among women 30 and older are not enough to make up for the declines in births among younger women.
There are more consequences to declining marriage than fewer births, too.
Marriage is a good in itself. Marriage is one of the strongest factors associated with adult happiness and is also connected with increased household income, better health, and greater psychological well-being for adults.
Children raised in married-parent families also do better on these outcomes, as well as several others: greater educational attainment, lower delinquency rates, reduced likelihood of abuse.
While there are some silver linings in the new birth rate data then, including declining teen births, the underlying story is much bleaker. It’s a story of declining marriage and family formation. This comes at great cost—including a shrinking future generation.
