In the early hours of Jan. 3, elite U.S. military forces crossed into Venezuelan territory in a highly sophisticated and coordinated operation, capturing narco-dictator Nicolas Maduro.
The operation focused solely on arresting Maduro and his wife, Cilia, who now sit in a New York jail cell awaiting trial. In capturing Maduro, President Donald Trump removed the core barrier to the resolution of Venezuela’s years-long nightmare and the hemispheric threat of a narco-regime.
During a months-long pressure campaign, Maduro was offered countless offramps by the United States—which could have seen him comfortably living out his days in Turkey or Russia. However, Maduro would not, or could not, take these offers.
Taking Maduro off the table alone hasn’t yet ended the narco-dictatorship and the threat it poses to the U.S. Indeed, Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez, who claimed the position of vice president under the criminal Maduro regime, has been sworn in by a puppet supreme court as interim president.
Arresting Maduro has upended a status quo in Venezuela that favored continuity for the regime and insecurity for the United States.
Several questions and unknowns remain as to what comes next.
Many are concerned that the U.S. is about to embark on an Iraq-style nation building exercise, in which U.S. soldiers and taxpayer money are deployed in a long and dangerous effort. That does not appear to be Trump’s intention, nor would it be necessary to restore stability and security in Venezuela.
Indeed, there are no known U.S. troops within Venezuela at this moment.
Instead, the Trump administration seems poised to continue its previous efforts to leverage economic, tactical, and diplomatic pressure against the remnants the narco-regime to facilitate a restoration of stability and democracy and end the threat to the United States.
Following Maduro’s removal, these U.S. efforts and tools now have renewed power against the weakened remnants of the regime;deploying them opens up a realistic path to an eventual full end to the narco-dictatorship and restoration of democracy.
We can discard the warnings voiced by some critics of the Trump administration—Maduro’s removal will not cause widespread instability and worsen the crisis in Venezuela, nor possibly trigger another mass migration to the U.S. To assume either of this will happen is poorly based; there are no signs that such effects will materialize.
Once Venezuela is able to fully free itself of the shackles of two decades of narco-dictatorship, there will indeed be a substantial effort required to rebuild its economy and restore stability.
However, it’s important to recognize that Venezuela is not Iraq, nor is it Syria, or Libya, despite the claims of some self-described “experts.”
Venezuela is a nation which has deep democratic, Judeo-Christian, and western foundations. These values were all upended by a catastrophic socialist experiment turned criminal regime, but the foundations remain and make a return to stability far less treacherous for Venezuela than Iraq.
Additionally, Venezuela was once one of the world’s most prosperous nations, thanks in part to its connectedness to the U.S. economy and sizable oil resources.
Indeed, in 1983, Venezuela was the first country in South America to construct a metro train system. These economic resources and foundations can fuel the restoration of stability in Venezuela, while mitigating the costs for any support from the U.S. and international community.
The impact of geopolitics is impossible to ignore with respect to Venezuela. The U.S. mainland is as close to Venezuela as New York is to Texas. That proximity left the American people especially vulnerable to Maduro’s weaponization of drug trafficking and mass migration against the U.S.
Venezuela’s proximity to the U.S. also matters because the regime has made Venezuelan territory a base of operations for hostile extra-hemispheric powers, including China, Russia, and Iran.
The U.S. capture of Maduro also comes at a critical moment in the western hemisphere—Latin America is currently experiencing a resurgence of conservative, pro-U.S. leadership with recent elections in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador and elsewhere.
The new leaders of these nations will be invaluable partners in supporting and ensuring any efforts to rebuild Venezuela and ensure its stability.
Given these nations have suffered greatly from Venezuela’s weaponized narco-migration crisis, they will have a keen interest in supporting U.S. efforts there. Along with the U.S., they will be particularly important if there is ever need for a physical stabilizing security force on the ground, but also in advancing eventual reconstruction of public institutions and infrastructure.
As with any complex and fluid crisis such as this, we can’t fully predict what the exact path and future for Venezuela. However, what is clear is that the situation in Venezuela and its future prospects for stability have improved dramatically thanks to Trump’s decision to capture Maduro.
