The House of Representatives passed a bill to make it a felony to facilitate transgender procedures on minors Wednesday, but does it have any shot of becoming law?

The bill, titled the Protect Children’s Innocence Act, passed by a 216-to-211 margin.

Three Democrats, Reps. Don Davis of North Carolina, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, and Henry Cuellar of Texas, joined 213 Republicans in support of the legislation introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga.

But 4 Republicans joined 207 Democrats in opposition: Reps. Mike Lawler of New York, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Kennedy of Utah, and Gabe Evans of Colorado.

What could the opposition of a small number of House GOP moderates bode for the bill that now heads to the Senate?

A First for This Congress

Greene’s bill would make performing transgender surgeries or procedures on minors a felony.

The House vote on Wednesday was the first time this Congress Republicans had brought a ban on transgender procedures and surgeries for minors to the floor despite the fact that President Donald Trump had issued an executive order on the matter in January.

Offenders would face a penalty of up to 10 years in federal prison, with fines on the table, as well.

The bill expands the definition of chemical castration and genital or bodily mutilation in the federal code to a variety of transgender chemical and surgical procedures.

It also provides exemptions for treatment of rare conditions and medical emergencies. There are no exemptions for mental health-related issues.

What Could Happen in the Senate?

The bill would need to reach the 60-vote threshold for ending debate in order to come to a final vote in the Senate.

Unfortunately for Republicans, there’s no guarantee Democrats will get on board.

In January, zero Democrats voted to end debate on a bill introduced by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., to deny federal funding to schools that allow transgender-identifying male athletes to compete against females.

Greene’s bill likely falls under the jurisdiction of the Senate judiciary committee, chaired by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. Grassley’s office did not respond to a request for comment on whether they were interested in advancing the bill.

But while Democrats are likely to prevent the law from passing, a vote on Greene’s legislation on the Senate could be worthwhile for Republicans heading into a midterm election.

Vulnerable Senate Democrats are looking to appear as moderates heading into the 2026 midterm elections, but recorded votes on refusing to ban transgender surgeries for minors are one of the ways Republicans could look to dispel that narrative.

Other Ways to Ban Trans for Minors?

It comes to the Senate amid a continued debate over health care premium affordability, which has intersected with the transgender issue. 

Last week, 51 Republicans voted to advance a bill from Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Mike Crapo of Idaho to provide an alternative to the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits, which included provisions to prevent taxpayer funds from going to transgender procedures. It was nine votes shy of the threshold needed to come to a vote.

Cassidy is the chair of the Senate health, education, labor, and pensions (HELP) committee, which handles most matters related to health care, and told The Daily Signal he wishes to prevent transgender treatments for minors.

“President Trump and I are committed to protecting children from chemical and surgical castration,” the Senator, who is also a practicing physician, told The Daily Signal. “I look forward to reviewing the bill, and will continue working with President Trump and Republican colleagues to protect children from irreversible harm.”

Trump Administration Moves to Ban Federal Funds for Trans-ing Kids

Cassidy was in attendance at a Thursday Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) event, in which secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a new policy preventing federal taxpayer funds from going to the procedures.

“It’s wrong. It’s stopping now,” Cassidy said in a video posted to X. “I’ve been pushing this as the chairman of the [HELP committee]. I’m glad to see the administration agrees with me.”