Can the GOP Cash in on Ohio Redistricting as Dems Appear to Have Clear Midterm Advantage?
Rebecca Downs /
Ohio remains a key battleground in determining control of the U.S. House in the upcoming midterm elections. But as prediction models continue to shift the advantage in close races toward Democrats, do Republicans still have a chance in these Ohio races?
The Cook Political Report recently made several changes to its ratings in Ohio races. The report upgraded the reelection prospects of Democrat Ohio Reps. Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes, who are running in the 1st and 13th U.S. Congressional Districts, respectively.
The analysis claimed the changes reflect “Republicans’ broader midterm struggles as well as specific developments in each race.”
Landsman’s race shifted from a “Toss Up” to a “Lean D.”
Regarding Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, the report said that “it’s become clear that Landsman has a clear enough edge to shift this race,” pointing to a “quiet” Republican primary and Landsman’s cash advantage.
What was formerly a “Lean D” report rating for Sykes is now rated “Likely D.”
The shift in Sykes’ race, however, is less surprising.
Redrawn maps benefited the Democrat incumbent by design. When Ohio’s congressional maps were redistricted into a 12-3 Republican-leaning configuration, Republicans traded better prospects in the 1st District for a stronger Democrat advantage in the 13th District.
Supporters of the redistricting process have said the new maps represent a best-case scenario.
Ohio Republican Party State Central Committeeman Tony Schroeder, who previously spoke with The Daily Signal about the redrawn maps, also discussed the race in Ohio’s 1st District. “That district was more favorable for Republicans than it was previously,” he said. “Greg Landsman is a tough candidate but beatable in this cycle.”
Ohio has 12 House seats rated “solid” Democrat or Republican. Sykes’ seat in the 13th District is not one of them despite her increased advantage after redistricting.
Ohio’s 1st District—as well as the 9th, which is rated a “Toss Up”—are where Republicans are looking to make gains.
Republicans may have to work harder to win Ohio’s 1st District, especially in a midterm election year, but Landsman’s reelection is by no means a foregone conclusion—particularly if Republicans can sufficiently motivate their base. Turnout could prove critical, with the Cook Political Report noting that “enthusiasm among Ohio Democrats will be high.”
To win the turnout war, the GOP is looking to portray Landsman as complicit in Democrat radicalism.
“Shifting ratings won’t save Greg Landsman from his radical record,” Republican National Committee spokesman Hunter Lovell said in a statement to The Daily Signal. “Since taking office, he’s voted like a San Francisco liberal, pushing a radical transgender agenda on kids and fighting to keep illegal aliens on voter rolls. Landsman has made clear he’s more aligned with coastal elites than Ohio families.”
Landsman also has criticized his own state’s voting system and the SAVE America Act, while downplaying concerns about illegal immigrants attempting to vote.
The National Republican Congressional Committee continues to maintain that Landsman remains a vulnerable incumbent.
“Out-of-touch Greg Landsman remains one of the most vulnerable Democrats in America as he pushes for higher taxes, open borders, and a defund-the-police agenda in a district won by President [Donald] Trump,” NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon said. “Republicans are on offense in southwest Ohio and will retire liberal Landsman this fall.”
Trump won the newly drawn district in 2024. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine carried it twice, and Vice President JD Vance also won it during his 2022 Senate race.
The Cook Political Report regards Eric Conroy, an Air Force veteran and former CIA officer, as the Republican primary frontrunner in the 1st District. He’s been endorsed by Sens. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, and Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo.
The Daily Signal reached out to Conroy about his campaign for a statement but did but did not receive a response by publication time.
Dr. Steve Erbeck, a dentist, is one of Conroy’s competitors in the GOP primary. An Erbeck campaign spokesperson spoke to The Daily Signal about the state of the race, arguing it’s Erbeck who stands to have the best chance against Landsman.
“With the right Republican candidate in the general election, we are confident that OH-01 is one of the most competitive toss-up districts in the country. Steve Erbeck is the only candidate in the race who can build the coalition and broad base of support needed to flip this critical seat in November,” said Erbeck campaign spokesperson Max Docksey.
Given Vance’s strong Ohio ties, visits to the state could provide Republicans with a boost. According to an Emerson College Ohio poll from December, Vance holds a 50%-45% favorable rating and is viewed as the most favorable of six Ohio political figures among voters statewide.
In a midterm election year with Republicans controlling the White House and holding fragile majorities in both the House and Senate, the party cannot afford to take anything for granted. Ohio’s congressional delegation could make all the difference in how Republicans fare this upcoming election.
The Daily Signal reached out to the Landsman campaign for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.