On Jan. 3, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing wanted drug kingpin and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Perhaps in response, on Jan. 15, the Chinese government revealed footage of the People’s Liberation Army conducting a mock decapitation strike training exercise. Such a threat by Beijing should be taken seriously, but how likely is it?
The PLA’s video raises serious questions about China’s willingness to conduct a decapitation strike against Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. As seen in recent years, China has clearly demonstrated its intentions to annex Taiwan. To do so, the Chinese Communist Party has been trying to politically convince Taiwan to acquiesce, but is failing.
Critically, a decapitation strike alone against Taiwan would not ensure China achieves its goal.
Operation Absolute Resolve did not change the Venezuelan government but only removed Maduro from power. His government still holds power in Venezuela. Likewise, even if Taiwan lost Lai, the current government would continue under Vice President Hsiao Bi-Khim.
Unlike Venezuela’s Maduro, many of the Taiwanese people support the Taiwanese government and prefer it over China. It’s worth recalling that a clear majority of the Taiwanese people identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and most of them are against unification with China. Therefore, removing Lai is highly unlikely to turn the citizens against the Taiwanese government and in favor of China.
Instead, China may attempt to blockade Taiwan in order to compel it to join China. China could also order a large, heavily coordinated amphibious invasion. These larger operations, which would likely open with mass missile strikes, would likely include early targeted attacks on Taiwan’s leadership.
If Beijing were to attempt a decapitation strike, it would almost certainly elicit a robust response from the U.S. and its allies. The 2025 National Security Strategy stated the U.S. will pursue “deterring conflict over Taiwan” and will attempt to keep the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait. At the low end of that response would likely be strong and enduring sanctions isolating China at a time it remains economically vulnerable to an overseas supply of critical resources. Better understanding these vulnerabilities was one focal point of The Heritage Foundation’s recent project TIDALWAVE.
A Chinese attempt to launch a decapitation strike could even lead to a war between China and the U.S. that would be a global disaster. By some estimates, such a conflict could result in the loss of around 100,000 PLA personnel and cost $2 trillion to $3 trillion to China’s economy alone. This cost, however, is not enough to dissuade the communist regime alone.
But does the Chinese military even have the capability to execute a successful decapitation strike against Taiwan?
Absolute Resolve was conducted smoothly due to the skills and planning of the United States’ military. These skills and capabilities were refined in combat operations such as Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001, Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2002, Operation Inherent Resolve in 2014, Operation Freedom’s Sentinel in 2015, and Operation Enduring Sentinel in 2021.
Maduro’s capture involved high levels of coordination of over 150 aircraft. The operation was conducted against a vastly underprepared Venezuelan military that relied on Cuban soldiers to help protect Maduro. This gave the U.S. a substantial advantage that China does not have relative to Taiwan.
However, it is unlikely China would be able to successfully extract the Taiwanese president with such ease.
In recent years, China has practiced various military drills throughout China and the South China Sea, including decapitation strikes. Despite these many drills, the PLA lacks combat field experience in modern warfare.
For example, the Sea Dragons, the Chinese navy’s special forces, have only had field experience in antipiracy operations, and the majority of their personnel have never been deployed. Additionally, many of the PLA’s special operations teams are still reliant on military conscripts, who have less training and experience, rather than a professionalized army.
Meanwhile, Taiwan lives under the constant threat of an attack and has prepared for this.
This includes highly advanced early warning systems such as “RADARs, satellites, airborne early warning aircraft, drones, and naval vessels.” Additionally, Taiwan’s 202nd Military Command, which focuses on protecting the president and residents of Taiwan, includes battalions specifically for protecting the presidential office and Lai’s residency.
In recent years, the 202nd has increased its counter-decapitation capabilities, including equipping a Taipei artillery unit with Stinger anti-air missiles. Weapons that greatly complicated Russia’s combat close air support in the early phases of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Furthermore, Taiwan’s military studies the PLA’s military drills and operations in order to formulate plans to counter various types of attacks, including decapitation strikes. This makes it considerably more difficult for an inexperienced PLA to conduct a successful strike against Lai. A kill order using long-range missiles is more achievable but highly escalatory and could lead to the very pressure, sanctions, or U.S. involvement it wishes to avoid with no guarantee of success.
In sum, due to the inherent risks and uncertainty of success, a Chinese decapitation strike against Taiwan in the near term is unlikely. However, that does not mean Taiwan is safe, and Beijing’s recent threats should be taken seriously as they are intended to distract and sow division in Taipei. As such, the United States and its allies must remain vigilant to respond effectively to any provocation across the Taiwan Strait.
