A Russian oil tanker moving toward Cuba during a U.S. oil blockade is an act of Russian President Vladimir Putin testing “American resolve,” according to one foreign affairs expert.
Russia’s Anatoly Kolodkin tanker, carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of crude oil, has reportedly sailed toward Cuba’s port of Matanzas but, according to United Press International, has since altered course toward the central Caribbean Sea.
“We don’t know if the tanker is going to make it all the way to Cuban waters, but if it does, and the United States does not react, then it sends a signal to the world that we aren’t serious, No. 1, in terms of our resolve to change things in Cuba, and No. 2, to stand up to Putin,” Christine Balling, a senior vice president at the Institute of World Politics, told The Daily Signal.
Cuba is experiencing blackouts and an energy grid crisis after the United States cut off oil shipments to the island following the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro.
President Donald Trump has indicated the U.S. might take action in Cuba to force regime change and has even said he thinks he can “do anything” he wants with Cuba.
The current “state of play inside of Cuba is the regime has continued collapsing, socially, politically and economically,” John Suarez, the executive director at the Center for a Free Cuba, explained.
Cuba has not invested in its domestic energy infrastructure and has relied on Venezuelan oil for years.
In 2015, Russia offered to help Cuba modernize its infrastructure through loans and investments, but the project was never completed because, in Suarez’s words, Cuba claimed to have “other priorities.”
If the Russian tanker attempts to reach Cuba, the U.S. “should intercept the tanker if, in fact, it is bold enough to try to break through the blockade,” Balling, who also served as an adviser to U.S. Special Operations Command South, said.
While Putin likely wants to get the tanker as close to Cuba as possible for purposes of “propaganda,” when faced with a conflict with the U.S., Balling speculated that the “Russians would back down” because “they have too much at stake with Ukraine.”
The lack of oil and the blackouts have led to internal protests against the regime.
It would be in American interests for the regime to fall, because Cuba has for years been training “Marxist terrorist groups in the region” and is a major threat to U.S. intelligence, Balling explained.
Cuba has “been a very effective enemy against the United States on our home turf,” she said, referencing Cuban agents who managed to infiltrate the U.S. government, such as Victor Manuel Rocha, the former U.S. ambassador to Bolivia.
In 2024, Rocha was sentenced to 15 years in prison after pleading guilty to secretly acting as an agent of the Cuban government for 40 years.
“Despite the poverty, despite it being an isolated island, the [Cuban Intelligence Directorate] has been punching above its weight for years,” Balling said.
Balling said it is unlikely the U.S. will take action against Cuba while Operation Epic Fury is still underway. Still, the Russian oil tanker could act as a “forcing function” for America to take decisive action.