Iran has targeted its neighbors in the Persian Gulf by firing missiles and conducting drone attacks, but despite the attacks, the Middle Eastern countries have not fired back and for good reason, a foreign policy expert argues.
“Never say never, but with very high certainty, I can say that the Gulf [states] are not partaking in this war,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told reporters on a call Monday.
Gulf nations believe if they fire back at Iran, “they will give Iran justification to continue exchanging fire with them,” Abdul-Hussain said.
Iran has fired missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Cyprus.
Countries like the United Arab Emirates have “never been in a situation where they have to take fire, have sirens, run to the bomb shelter,” and “they’re not sure that they’re ready to go to war,” he said.
Additionally, with both Israel and the United States carrying out hundreds of strikes on Iran, it is not clear that a few more F-16 fighter jets would make a significant difference, Abdul-Hussain said.
Just because Iran’s neighbors are unlikely to respond to its hostility with missiles and bombs does not mean that Iran’s attacks will go unpunished, according to Abdul-Hussain.
If the Iranian regime remains in place after the war ends, “Iran will face very strong isolation,” he predicted. The regime is now under the leadership of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28.
The “perks” Gulf nations have offered Iran, such as Dubai allowing wealthy Iranians to bank in the UAE to avoid sanctions, are likely to end.
In attacking the Gulf states, Iran may have moved those countries closer to Israel and the United States, retired Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, the former national security adviser to the prime minister of Israel and former head of the National Security Council, told reporters.
If the regime remains in power in Iran, Gulf nations may conclude that “the way to deal with this aggressiveness of the Iranians … is to be closer to Israel, closer to America, and to build a defensive shield, which will help us to deal with the aggressiveness of the Iranians. I don’t know what they will decide, but that will have big, huge implications on the future of the region,” Amidror said.
Over the past nine days since the U.S. and Israel launched the joint attack on Iran, the leaders of Gulf states have discovered that “Iran is an irrational state,” Abdul-Hussain said.
“You cannot count on the rationality of a state that doesn’t know the difference between a friend and a foe or a neutral party,” he added.
Saudi Arabia has threatened Iran with retaliation should Iran continue to target Saudi Arabia. In Qatar, authorities arrested members of two alleged Iranian sleeper cells last week. There have also been reports that Qatar plans to expel Hamas leaders, who are loyal to Iran, from the nation.
The actions and threats from Gulf nations against Iran are “a reflection of a consensus that had been building for many years prior: that Iran is a shared threat to everyone, not just our common interests, but really to the citizens of all these countries,” Jacob Olidort, the director of American security at the America First Policy Institute, told The Daily Signal.
President Donald Trump says the U.S. will continue the operation until Iran surrenders, and Israel has given no indication it plans to stop its campaign against the Iranian regime.
Trump on Monday told CBS News the operation in Iran “is very complete” and is “very far ahead” of his initial estimated time frame.
