A new poll on the Texas Senate primaries reveals incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is facing tough Republican competition, and Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s path to a nomination will not be easy, either.
The Senate race, which pits recognized Washington politicians against Austin-based rivals, could determine the ideological direction of both political parties.
A Tight Republican Race
Cornyn, who has represented the Lone Star State in the Senate since 2003, faces primary challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas.
The Emerson College survey shows Cornyn trailing Paxton by one point, with Paxton at 27% support among likely Republican voters, and Cornyn at 26%.
This gap is well within the margin of error of four percentage points.
Trailing in third place is Hunt, who entered the race in October.
A plurality of voters, however, remain “undecided,” with 29% of respondents unsure of whom they support. Paxton and Cornyn have both been elected Texas politicians for decades.
Early voting for the March 3 primary begins Feb. 17. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in their respective primary election, that would trigger a May 26 runoff election between the top two primary candidates.
President Donald Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the primary.
A Hunt spokesman sent The Daily Signal a statement that defended his standing in the race.
“With nearly 30 percent of the electorate still undecided, Wesley Hunt stands out as the strongest general-election candidate in this race,” said the spokesman.
“Multiple polls, including one conducted by President Trump’s 2024 pollster, show Hunt in second place or locked in a three-way tie, confirming his momentum and broad appeal.”
The Hunt spokesman added, “Unlike Senator Cornyn, Wesley Hunt is taking his message directly to the voters, traveling the state, answering tough questions, and earning the support of Texans the hard way: face to face.”
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak declined to comment on the poll but told The Daily Signal in response to the Hunt campaign’s comment, “Wesley Hunt has now missed 26 of 29 votes this year, when President Trump has a razor-thin majority in the US House.”
Mackowiak added, “Wesley Hunt claims to support the Trump agenda, but he refuses to show up for work, while being paid $174,000 annually by taxpayers.”
Paxton’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Crockett Launch?
The Emerson poll shows Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, has established herself among voters since launching her campaign in early December but still trails state Rep. James Talarico in the Democrat primary.
Talarico leads the primary field with 47% support.
Despite being a state-level politician, Talarico has amassed a large social media following as a critic of Trump and Republican leadership in Texas.
Crockett trails with 38% support, beyond the survey’s 4.8% margin of error.
Similar to Republican primary voters, there are also plenty of Democrats who are undecided. Fifteen percent of respondents were unsure of which candidate to support.
Former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in 2024, dropped out of the primary race in December in favor of a run for Texas’ 33rd Congressional District.
The Democrat primary will be held the same day as the Republican primary and is subject to the same run-off rules.
Crockett’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. After the publication of this article, a spokesperson for Talarico declined comment.
