How Will Trump Verdict Affect His Election Prospects? New Poll Offers First Clue

For months, Democrats have predicted that a guilty verdict in the controversial New York hush money trial would doom former President Donald Trump’s reelection hopes. Instead, new polling data from Scott Rasmussen suggests there is “no measurable impact.”

Rasmussen’s polling firm, RMG Research, had both Trump and President Joe Biden tied at 42% in its poll immediately preceding the May 30 verdict. Following the conviction, Trump gained a percentage point, leading 43% to Biden’s 42%.

“[T]he conviction of Donald Trump in a New York courtroom had no measurable impact on Election 2024,” Rasmussen wrote in a memo shared with The Daily Signal. “Survey results following the conviction are virtually identical to results preceding the conviction.”

Rasmussen first unveiled his findings Sunday on Merit Street Media’s “The Scott Rasmussen Show.”

Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who viewed Trump as less ethical than other politicians remained the same before and after the jury’s decision to convict him on 34 counts.

“This suggests any baggage carried by the president has long since been baked into the public’s assessment of him,” Rasmussen wrote in his memo. “In other words, the jury decision wasn’t news that surprised anyone.”

Also working in Trump’s favor: A majority of Americans, 52%, think his conviction will be overturned on appeal. Less than a third, 32%, disagree.

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Biden’s ethical lapses—and potential criminal behavior—are a factor contributing to the latest poll numbers, Rasmussen wrote. More than half, 51%, believe Biden committed crimes that could put him in court once he leaves office. Another 41% say Biden is less ethical than most politicians.

More than 6 in 10 voters, 62%, want the audio tapes from Robert Hur’s interview of Biden to be released to Congress, including 45% of Democrats. The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project, Judicial Watch, and CNN are suing the Justice Department for access to the recordings.

In a recent development, the Justice Department admitted to altering the Biden transcript by removing “filler words” such as “um” or “uh.” Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton said that “the transcript is not accurate and was changed in a way to help Biden.”

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An overwhelming number of Americans agree: Upon being told of the edited transcript, 69% said Congress should have the opportunity to review Biden’s interview to confirm its accuracy.

Nearly two-thirds, 65%, think the Biden tapes contain embarrassing statements, while 59% believe the audio’s public release would harm Biden’s reelection bid.

The RMG Research polling data on Trump’s trial is from a June 3-4 survey of 1,000 registered voters; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The data on Biden’s audio tapes is from a June 5-6 survey of 1,000 registered voters; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.