Here’s How the Fall of Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez Could Shape Debate on Iran, Cuba

Sen. Bob Menendez’s indictment on corruption charges promises to have far-reaching impact because of his habit of bucking the White House and siding with Republicans on divisive foreign policy issues.

Menendez, D-N.J., said last week he would temporarily step down from his position as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he used his perch to clash with the Obama administration over its nuclear negotiations with Iran and its policy to open diplomatic relations with Cuba.

“It’s a big deal,” said Brian Darling, a former senior staff member for Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., the 2016 presidential contender who also sits on the Foreign Relations Committee.

“It’s a big deal because the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee is the goalkeeper—the goaltender—on all foreign policy issues that pass through the Senate. I don’t think there is a Democrat in the whole caucus who is more of a hardliner on Cuba than Menendez. He is Cuban-American. He is someone who feels passionately about the issue. So that will be a dramatic change in Cuba policy. And he is more of a hardliner on Iran policy than most Democrats on the committee. He is the most important person in that committee on those issues.”

Menendez, fearful that normalizing relations with Cuba legitimizes the repressive Castro regime, has been one of Obama’s most outspoken critics on the issue.

Obama has called on Congress to lift the five-decade embargo against Cuba, and Menendez was expected to be one of the leaders opposing the move.

Advocate for Congressional Role on Iran Deal

Menendez has also been a leader in pushing for Congress to have a gatekeeping role over the comprehensive agreement by Iran and six world powers to constrain Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

On April 14, the Foreign Relations Committee will take up a bipartisan bill, sponsored by Chairman Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Menendez, that would force congressional review of the Iran deal.

Menendez is the “most important person” on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Iran and Cuba issues, says @BrianHDarling.

The bill would give Congress a 60-day window to debate the Iran agreement before voting yes or no or taking no action.

It would also allow Congress to keep in place some sanctions against Iran.

Before the indictment, it was expected that Menendez and Corker would lead the effort to persuade enough Senate Democrats to reach the 67 votes needed to override a likely presidential veto.

Politico reported Monday that a dozen Senate Democrats “have either co-sponsored Corker’s legislation or indicated they could support it”—leaving the measure one vote short of a veto-proof majority.

Corker indicated in a statement that he still expects Menendez to have a voice in foreign policy issues such as Iran, even though the New Jersey lawmaker’s future in Congress is uncertain.

“While I have no knowledge of the judicial matters at hand, I appreciate his bipartisan work on foreign relations issues and expect he will continue to play a constructive role,” Corker said.

And with Congress seemingly united in wanting to weigh in on the Iran negotiations, observers don’t expect Menendez’ diminished stature to imperil that effort.

“There is bipartisan agreement that Congress wants to have a say on the Iran deal,” Darling said.

Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland will replace Menendez as the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.

Cardin, who is Jewish and a leading pro-Israel voice in Congress, is not a co-sponsor of the Corker-Menendez bill.

Sue Walitsky, Cardin’s communications director, says her boss is supportive of additional sanctions against Iran but only if the administration’s negotiations with Tehran fail.

“America is always stronger when we speak with one voice on foreign policy issues,” Cardin said in a statement after he was named the leading Democrat on the committee. “The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has an important role in defining that unified voice for America.”

Cuba Policy Shift: ‘May Make it Easier’

Though the Senate seems united on at least wanting a say on the Iran nuclear talks, Menendez’ cloudy future will likely magnify the differences in how lawmakers view the Cuba issue.

Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, the leading Republican voice who supports normalizing relations with Cuba, is already hinting that the Obama administration’s case will be bolstered with Menendez perhaps figuring less in the debate.

“If the [Foreign Relations] Committee dynamics change, it may make it easier to implement change to our Cuba policy, including lifting the travel ban,” said Flake in a statement to The Daily Signal.

”If the [Foreign Relations] Committee dynamics change, it may make it easier to implement change to our Cuba policy,” says @JeffFlake.

Flake is referring to tourist travel to Cuba, which is still prohibited by the embargo, though Americans can travel to the island for journalistic and religious activities, sports competitions, public performances and other reasons.

Cardin likewise indicated support for Obama’s Cuba policy.

“Senator Cardin believes we should continue to push Cuba on their human rights record but the recent diplomatic changes are positive,” said Walitsky, Cardin’s communications director, in a statement to The Daily Signal.

Under the policy shift, the U.S. has already nipped at the edges of the embargo, opening Cuba to expanded American travel, trade and financial activities.

Today, CNN reported that the U.S. State Department is likely to recommend removing Cuba from the state sponsors of terrorism list.

If Obama accepts the State Department’s recommendation, Congress would have 45 days to approve the decision. The terrorist list issue has been a hang-up in the establishment of embassies in Havana and Washington.

But even with all the Obama administration’s moves, only Congress can fully lift the embargo.

If Menendez isn’t in a position to defend the embargo, observers say the opposition in Congress is strong enough that it won’t matter.

“You won’t see congressional repeal of the embargo anytime soon regardless of who is the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,” said a former State Department official in the George W. Bush administration, who wished not to be named because he currently provides strategic advice to Republicans.

“The votes just aren’t there,” the official told The Daily Signal.

Such a comment reflects the likely larger truth about the impact of Menendez’ indictment on the Senate’s approach to foreign policy.

In today’s era of partisanship, change comes slow—if at all—so even the fall of an influential figure like Menendez can cause barely a ripple in policy outcomes.

“The policies won’t change much, but the passion behind the arguments will be a little bit less,” says Darling, the former Rand Paul staffer.