Iran, the Mullah’s Worst Fear

Helle Dale / February 14, 2011

From the perspective of the dictatorships of the Middle East, the most obvious conclusion from the demonstrations in Egypt and the resignation Friday of embattled President Hosni Mubarak is undoubtedly that a little freedom is a dangerous thing. On the other hand, keeping a tight lid on any kind of opposition and controlling the information flow and cyberspace will leave political opponents little room to maneuver. It is when the people lose their fear, as they did in Tunisia and Egypt, that the regime will end up on the ropes, or down for the count.

Much the same thing happened 20 years ago in the former Soviet bloc, when the people of Central and Eastern Europe lost their fear of their Soviet-backed oppressors. At the time, the leadership of China saw the writing on the wall and crushed the Tiananmen Square demonstrators, effectively securing their power for the foreseeable future.

Iran’s mullahs do not want to follow in the footsteps of Mubarak, which could be a very real possibility give the similar demographics of Iran and the deep popular resentment of its autocratic regime. The Iranian Green Movement is still a force today—but largely from outside the country following the clampdown after the election of June 2009. (more…)