It’s a ‘Worst-Case Scenario’ as Hurricane Michael Nears Category 5 Strength Before Landfall
Michael Bastasch /
Hurricane Michael is on the brink of Category 5 strength—a “worst-case scenario” for Florida’s panhandle, according to forecasters.
Packing 150-mph winds, Michael was expected to intensify right up until landfall, a “worst-case scenario,” meteorologist Ryan Maue warned. Michael’s central pressure was expected to reach below 920 millibars, which is on par with a Category 5 storm.
>>> Update: Michael came ashore near Panama City Beach shortly after 1:30 p.m., The Washington Post reported.
< 920 mb is typically Category 5 — but it doesn't appear that the wind speed will have the chance to "catch up" to the pressure before landfall.
The intensification right up until landfall is "worst case scenario" https://t.co/zQm5yGCAki
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) October 10, 2018
#HurricaneMichael has nearly reached the apex of storm intensity — the satellite presentation is textbook Category 5 — but the wind speeds reported by aircraft are trivially lower.
Overnight weather models indicated intensification right up until landfall. pic.twitter.com/OtWQ9qYpsL
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) October 10, 2018
Officials measure hurricane strength using the Saffir-Simpson scale. A Category 5 storm is the most intense rating on the scale, packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 157 mph or more. Michael’s maximum sustained wind speed is currently 150 mph.
The National Weather Service echoed Maue’s sentiment. The agency warned in all capital letters: “THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.”
Landfall of #HurricaneMichael is imminent. THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO for the Florida Panhandle!! Listen to your local emergency officials. Stay Inside & Survive!" –NWS Director Dr. Louis Uccellini @NWSDirector pic.twitter.com/EMSZbMaHwW
— NWS (@NWS) October 10, 2018
When Michael strikes the panhandle, it will be the strongest storm on record to make landfall in the region, according to the National Weather Service. Nine major hurricanes have made landfall on the Florida Panhandle since 1851, though none have been stronger than a Category 3 storm.
Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach tweeted that just “4 hurricanes on record have hit the continental US with a lower pressure” than Michael.
#Hurricane #Michael's pressure continues to drop – now to 923 hPa. Only 4 hurricanes on record have hit the continental US with a lower pressure: Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005). pic.twitter.com/i2zddUrWpU
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 10, 2018
Officials ordered evacuations and warned those who did not get out of the storm’s way to shelter in place. Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott warned residents of the life-threatening damage the storm will do to the coast.
“Hurricane Michael is going to hit very near to where we are in Franklin County as a dangerous and life-threatening major hurricane, and if you don’t follow the warnings from these officials, the storm could kill you,” Scott told residents on Tuesday.
LATEST on #HurricaneMichael: https://t.co/kSsPXS1kXB
– Category 4 storm
– Winds of up to 145 mph
– 80 Miles SSW of Panama City, FL
– Moving N at 10 mph. pic.twitter.com/R4SamDWqYX— ABC News (@ABC) October 10, 2018
Storm surge is expected to reach up to 14 feet around Panama City, and heavy rains and incredibly strong winds will accompany the life-threatening surge.
President Donald Trump tweeted Wednesday that “[w]e are with you Florida!” Trump linked to the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s website.
We are with you Florida! https://t.co/qzrVLeFbyFhttps://t.co/HVVhSmBg7S pic.twitter.com/rcB6OCwLeH
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2018
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