China Receiving ‘Mixed Signals’ on US Operation in Iran
Virginia Allen /
China is carefully watching the U.S. operation in Iran and is receiving “mixed signals,” according to Jeff Smith, director of The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.
Since operations began on Feb. 28, the United States has carried out more than 5,000 strikes on targets in Iran and has destroyed more than 50 Iranian vessels, according to U.S. Central Command.
“On one hand, China is aware that America is devoting scarce resources, munitions, and military assets to a theater outside the Indo-Pacific. In a vacuum, this can negatively impact deterrence, and the strained industrial base must be addressed,” Smith told The Daily Signal.
The U.S. moved military assets, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, from the Indo-Pacific region into the Middle East ahead of the launch of Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli operation in Iran.
“On the other hand,” Smith continued, “the military operations in Iran can enhance deterrence by making the Chinese leadership fearful of President [Donald] Trump’s unpredictability, his willingness to use force abroad, and the demonstration of the U.S. military’s ability to operate effectively thousands of miles from home in ways the Chinese military cannot.”
China remains a threat to Taiwan, as the Chinese Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own while Taiwan maintains its independence from China.
The U.S. has pledged an arms package for Taiwan, and both Democrats and Republicans have largely supported Taiwan’s sovereignty.
“I think the Chinese are extremely concerned because they see another successful military operation,” Gordon Chang, author of “Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America,” told The Daily Signal.
Following not only the U.S. operation in Iran, but also the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January, Chang believes the U.S. has “increased deterrence in East Asia.”
Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing from March 31-April 2, five months after the two leaders met in South Korea to discuss a trade deal.
The summit with Xi creates somewhat of a ticking “geopolitical clock” on the U.S. operation in Iran, according to Ilan Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council.
Trump “has to set the table for that meeting, and that involves not only stabilizing global oil prices, but also having a firmer grip on Iran in order to be able to use that as leverage against the Chinese,” Berman said.
Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel this week as Iran threatened the safety of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. However, oil prices fell Tuesday after Trump indicated Operation Epic Fury was nearing an end.
Trump is more concerned, in Chang’s estimation, with a successful outcome in the Middle East than with how the operation’s outcome will affect the meeting with Xi. Still, the result in Iran could have a significant influence on the summit, he said.
If the operation in Iran “turns sour,” China will likely give Trump “a really hard time,” and it would be in Trump’s best interest to cancel the meeting, Chang said. But if Trump secures the unconditional surrender of the Iranian regime, or the regime has fallen by the end of March, this will give Trump a strategic advantage in Beijing, according to Chang.
China is also made nervous “when people throw off their leaders,” the author explained.
“I’m sure the Chinese leaders worry that if the Chinese people see that the Iranians have overthrown the Iranian regime, then I’m sure the Communist Party is going to be even more insecure,” Chang said.